That said, as an asset class, currency is still very much in its
infancy. It has been brought to the forefront in the last few years due
to some significant moves in currency markets, particularly in the
so-called commodity currencies – the Canadian, New Zealand and
Australian dollars – where variation in double-digit percentages have
been quite common.
Turbulence
Pension funds tend to approach currency from an overlay perspective,
rather to reduce risk than solely enhancing portfolio returns.
Turbulent equity markets, together with volatile exchange rates, have
recently highlighted the extent to which currency movement can
undermine returns on international portfolios. As an example, Canadian
pension funds, which traditionally invest significantly in the US
equity market, have seen their US equity return in 2003 being eroded
away by the strong appreciation in the Canadian dollar versus the US
dollar.
Funds with only a smaller proportion (say, 5 to 10 per cent) invested
in overseas markets, have in the past found the currency effect less
noticeable. In a down cycle, where equity returns are poor, the extra
downside of currency movement becomes – and became – starkly obvious.
The solution for a pension fund, foundation or other institution is to
hedge away the currency risk. They do this by employing a currency
overlay strategy, which
sells forward the foreign currencies of the portfolio so as to insure
against the dangers of foreign currency depreciation versus their local
currency.
The same techniques that are used to overlay institutional portfolios
can also be used within a context of currency as an asset class and may
prove valuable for sophisticated high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in
search of diversification.
Liquid currencies
Managing currency as an asset class involves buying or selling
(underweighting or overweighting) currencies on FX markets so as to
generate value. Some strategies restrict this to G10 currencies; others
broaden the pool to include more “exotic” and also less liquid
currencies.
Usually currency managers take a position across currencies by using
forward contracts, with a maturity of up to (say) three months.
Traditionally, asset managers have had investment process to deal with
currencies that remained focused on fundamentals, therefore
concentrating on a medium to long-term macro view of the market based
on expected level of inflation, gross domestic product and also
relative productivity concepts.
While these are certainly explanatory factors of FX markets, they
usually address longer timescale, (six to 12 months) that may not
always coincide with the time horizon of the average investor. Others
such as ABN AMRO Asset Management Limited use a more quantitatively
driven process relying on time series analysis, to address shorter time
horizons.
Cutting costs
The investment process, principally a quantitative framework,
incorporates trend factors, relative inflation expectations and
interest rate differentials. Based on market prices, it can generate
buy or sell recommendations in relation to 67 different exchange rates.
The allocation is then constructed so as to maximise diversification
across currency strategies for a pre-defined level of risk. That is, if
the risk target is 12 per cent, we will aim to use the maximum number
of strategies possible without exceeding the risk target.
The process also focuses strongly on liquidity while constructing the
portfolio allocation – essentially, keeping a higher proportion of the
assets in more liquid currencies (such as the US dollar or the euro)
and less in the less liquid ones (such as the New Zealand or Australian
dollars), but without excluding the relatively illiquid currencies
altogether.
The rationale is that as an example Antipodean dollars – and other
relatively illiquid currencies – do not come cheap. While (say) buying
euros could come with a spread of around 0.07 per cent, the costs of
buying an illiquid currency such as the New Zealand dollar can work out
to about 1.2 per cent for significant transaction size. This investment
process aims to balance the costs of entering or exiting such illiquid
markets against the benefits of diversification that these currencies
may provide.
More generally, by using exactly the same approach for high net worth
individuals’ assets than for currency overlay for institutional giants,
trading costs can be cut across the board for HNWI clients. Using block
trades means private individuals may benefit from the same mar- ket
access as traders’ cherished institutional accounts.
Times of change
Although economic cycles in themselves – the headline bear or bull
markets – do not have much impact on the decision making process of
quantitively driven investment styles, generally speaking currency
managers tend to do best in times of change. Changes in inflation and
changes (or anticipated changes) in interest rate levels across the
globe generate potential source of value for those who know how to
access it. Active currency managers benefit from changes in relative
productivity between countries.
Currency managers can generate returns in many market configurations
and have not to rely solely on a bearish dollar trend; they may also
add value when the US dollar appreciates or tap into other market
opportunities such as cross currency trade or emerging market
strategies. With most funds offering monthly liquidity and some
offering bimonthly liquidity, currency strategies are also attractively
accessible to the investor.
Currency funds are an alternative investment. They are by no means to
be considered risk free, but the return relative to risk is attractive:
information ratios (excess return/tracking error) over the medium term
are generally in the range 0.5 to 1. Thus currency products compete
well with other more traditional asset classes.
As highlighted by investment consultant research and also the many peer
group benchmarks available, currency managers have outperformed through
time and also more significantly over the last couple of years. In
2003, many currency managers had an information ratio (ie, return
divided by risk) ranging between 1 and 2.
For whom?
Crucially, and on top of an already impressive CV, currency
products offer diversification from the major asset classes. As the
industry settles into the new millennium, with investors still
disillusioned and fearful after the bursting of the technology bubble,
it is one of the strong candidates for the investor to consider.
But for whom? Who should invest in FX? As an investment class, rather
than a tactical overlay, it is very much the territory of the wealthy
individual in search of alternative sources of alpha, rather than the
institution. But this could change.
Institutions are investing increasingly in alternative investments. As
pension funds battle to match liabilities with investments, allocation
to absolute return products such as currency funds makes increasing
sense.
However, sophisticated individuals have the edge in terms of asset
allocation strategy: they have the advantage, in terms of speed, of not
having to convince a board of fairly conservatively minded trustees.
Risk-profile
Clearly, a HNWI’s allocation to the asset class – indeed, his decision
whether to go into it at all – will depend on his risk-aversion profile
and liabilities. But currency management, whether through guaranteed
notes or funds with frequent access, is attractive across different
utility curves. A diversifying investor with a 10-year investment
horizon might invest a portion of his assets in FX, but then so might a
short-term thinker who wants to remove the money, plus benefit from
potentially significant return over a short-term horizon. Both have
been done.
Currency, with its significant risk-return credentials, is attractive
as a stand-alone asset class. But it also has a real appeal as part of
an HNWI’s allocation to alternative investments. It can fill a role
similar to that played by hedge funds or private equity in a portfolio.
It is impossible to make any set rules, as individual risk profiles are
so variable, but a reasonable allocation for a sophisticated HNWI could
be 10 to 15 per cent to alternative investments. Within that, he could
sensibly allocate 5 per cent of the total portfolio to currency.
That settled, he is free to get back to choosing between Thomas Cook
and American Express at the airport, and planning his weekend in New
York.
Pierre Lequeux, head of currency management, ABN AMRO Asset Management Limited