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- The Greek government

- One or two French banks

- The Finnish government

- Spanish banks, UK banks, hmm a few banks really

These are just some of the world-class institutions Joseph has managed to annoy with stuff he’s dug up over the years. He joined FT Alphaville way back in March 2010.

Joseph likes all the politically and legally fiddly bits of finance. He also likes credit, rates, global macro, tail risk, and all that stuff. (You should email him story ideas. He’ll take anything.)

He doesn’t have a finance background.

Contact Joseph Cotterill

The Closer

ROUND-UP

Quote of the day: “I’m not going to give that any oxygen” — Ben Bernanke on the trillion-dollar coin at Monday’s University of Michigan speech. Read more

And the beat goes on, Dell edition

Flashes from Bloomberg:

*DELL IS SAID TO BE IN TALKS TO GO PRIVATE Read more

Les Miser-NAV-ables

Well, it’s a revolution! Apparently.

This is Goldman’s first report on its money market funds to disclose daily net asset values (h/t Tracy): Read more

Ireland, a local (law) bond for foreign buyers

Portrait of a returning peripheral sovereign, encore:

Speaking today, NTMA Chief Executive John Corrigan said that Ireland had made considerable progress in its phased return to the markets over the past year and, with the success of yesterday’s €2.5 billion syndicated bond sale, had eliminated the “funding cliff” presented by a €11.9 billion bond repayment due in mid January 2014. The NTMA intends to step up its re-engagement with the market during 2013 so that Ireland is positioned to successfully exit the EU/IMF programme. Its working plan is to raise €10 billion, subject to market conditions, of which one quarter has been achieved with yesterday’s bond sale. Mr Corrigan also said the NTMA would continue its regular auctions of short-term Bills, which recommenced in July 2012, with the first 2013 auction scheduled for Thursday 17 January. Read more

The Closer

ROUND-UP

US stocks edged down for a second day. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3 per cent at 1,457.15. Read more

Peripheral returns to the bond market are a bit like pornography

You know them when you see them, obvs.

Applying that rule of thumb… Read more

Fairytale of New York — in pari passu, anyway

If you thought the Argentine pari passu bond saga had taken the holiday dead period off — then you don’t know the pari passu saga very well.

Some interesting developments squeezed in before the new year… Read more

Fragata Libertad, the movie

Take one warship rescued from asset seizure by bond holdouts.

Add swelling music, defiant rhetoric by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the national flag stirring in the Atlantic breeze, and messages home from crewmen who remained on board while the dispute played out in a Ghanaian port and Hamburg tribunal… Read more

“Ghana shall forthwith and unconditionally release the frigate ARA Libertad”

And so an Argentine training warship is free to sail off into the sunset, and out of the clutches of bond holdouts.

Read more

TAG, you’re zero

Quite the rally in T-bills… continuing apace on Friday, now that the Transaction Account Guarantee has become increasingly, quietly, talked about in the past tense ahead of a year-end renewal deadline.

(Chart of the 1-year T-bill, click to enlarge. The yield on a T-bill maturing in January was close to zero at pixel time) Read more

Tom, Dick and Harry in Rome

A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, inside a pari passu clause.

Here are some terms from Italy’s 2015 US dollar bond, which it issued under New York law in 2010. It is a pari passu clause, even though you won’t find the words ‘pari passu’. Read more

How soon is now, UK NGDP targeting edition

All it takes — might not be very much. From the Bank of England Act 1998: Read more

Don’t call it a boondoggle

Greece paid up to 40 cents in the euro for one of the bond in its buyback. Average price: 33.8 cents in the euro.

Or rather wants to pay. It has “advised… official creditors” that it wants another €1.29bn in EFSF notes to purchase all of the bonds tendered, up from the original €10bn.

The results, in table form via this release (click to enlarge): Read more

If you’re going to CAC, now might be a good time — Greece edition

Yep, this is a Greece post in a series on Argentina and the pari passu saga.

We’ll explain. Read more

An (extended) offer from Greece…

Click for details. The Greek PSI bond buyback now closes at 12pm London time on December 11.


Now, is this supposed to be a veiled threat if investors choose not to tend their bonds? From the Greek debt office chief, Stelios Papadopoulos: Read more

November payrolls: +146k

Much better than expected (85k), but with downward revisions to September and October.

The jobless rate, now at 7.7 per cent, remains around a four-year low. Read more

All of this has happened before and will happen again, sovereign pari passu edition

On October 26, the Second Circuit chucked out Argentina’s appeal against having to pay bond holdouts, having had “little difficulty concluding” that the defaulted debt’s dusty, old — but contractually standard — pari passu clause demanded rateable payment. Read more

You’re in selective default (again), S&P tells Greece [updated]

No explanation had been given by S&P at pixel time. [Update: it's pasted below the jump.] But the situation is pretty clear: Greece’s “voluntary” buyback of the PSI bonds is being carried out in distressed conditions (ie it will otherwise lose eurozone financial support). Read more

The Closer

ROUND-UP

Apple dragged down the Nasdaq. The tech index fell 1.1 per cent, a drop almost entirely accounted for by Apple. The S&P 500 closed up 0.2 per cent at 1,409.28 (Reuters). Read more

The Closer

ROUND-UP

US stocks fell, insert fiscal cliff explanation here. The S&P 500 fell 0.2 per cent to close at 1,407.05. Gold fell below $1,700 a troy ounce (Financial Times). Read more

You, in the holdout suit! Stay as you are

And so ends a little saga-within-a-saga in the Argentine bond holdout case (but one which shed interesting light on the various sides’ litigating strategies). Read more

Quote… unquote, euro crisis edition [updated]

Wednesday’s annual charity day at Exotix, the frontier markets brokerage. To that end…

Gabriel Sterne, Exotix analyst, has presented clients with his top ten eurozone crisis quotes of 2012. Of course Sterne gave the answers to who said them, but we thought it might be fun for readers to try and guess. We’ll reveal the answers later. Read more

The Closer

ROUND-UP

A subpar ISM saddled stocks. The S&P 500 closed down 0.47 per cent at 1,409.46. The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturing fell to 49.5 in November, below forecasts of 51.3, and the first reading below 50 since July (Financial Times). Read more

Argentine jujutsu (and enter… Bank of New York)

UPDATE – Beyond the to-and-fro about stays and the Second Circuit in the post below…

Bank of New York Mellon has filed for leave to appeal Judge Griesa’s revised order for Argentina to pay (and for third parties not to assist it in not paying – including BNY). This is a significant move given the role of BNY enabling payments to restructured holders as their trustee. It was kind of stuck in the middle over the dispute between Argentina, holdouts and restructured bondholders, and had last asked courts to clarify its obligations. This filing marshals indenture trust law, Rule 65(d) of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, and “dangerous precedent” to seek to challenge the merits of Judge Griesa’s ruling itself. Read more

The SEC charges the (Chinese) Big Four

Read more

The ESM loses an Aaa

Moody’s has cut the eurozone bailout fund’s credit rating to Aa1, and maintained a negative outlook. It also removed provisional Aaa ratings from debt issued by the EFSF.

In a statement, the ratings agency blamed… France, whose own Aaa rating it cut last week: Read more

The Closer

ROUND-UP

The Fiscal See-Saw. The S&P 500 closed up 0.4 per cent at 1,415 in choppy trading (Financial Times). Read more

You’re un-Belizeable, encore

Latin American country tells creditors they can’t be serious…

While acknowledging that the Committee’s counter-proposal provides a degree of short-term cash flow relief, the GoB considers it to be wholly incompatible with its objective of placing the country’s debt burden on a sustainable footing – a goal that the Committee itself has indicated it is committed to at various stages. The GoB believes that the counter-proposal ignores Belize’s high overall debt levels, and that it amounts to little more than a short-term fix not dissimilar to the 2007 exercise. Read more

Stayin’ alive, Argentina edition

Looks like those emergency bondholder briefs had some effect on the Second Circuit…

IT IS HEREBY ORDERED that the motion by the Exchange Bondholder Group for leave to intervene as interested non-parties for the purpose of appealing orders entered by the district court on 11/21/12 and for the purpose of seeking a stay pending appeal is GRANTED. Read more

The Closer

ROUND-UP

One of those days when Harry Reid moved stocks. Apparently. The S&P 500 closed down 0.5 per cent at 1,398.14, while the Dow fell 0.69 per cent, with blame cast on signs of trouble for a fiscal cliff fix (Reuters). Read more

vlade - Sure, but they're leaving it kind of late!

E Sauvage - the legislated CACs applied to the old bonds to get the PSI done, then the PSI bonds were issued with these CACs.

AN Other Hedgie - So does that mean they can put bonds in the social security fund over year end, and then get them out again? It would actually be great if JeromeD's plan is viable...

Comment on: If you're going to CAC, now might be a good time -- Greece edition

Justin - it depends how explicit the arm-twisting is, I guess.

The PSI bond CAC terms - and also the new eurozone CACs - don't allow voting by government entities holding the bonds (which might mean your plan doesn't work even if the bonds aren't cancelled, JeromeD - devious though) nor by bonds of entities which lack 'autonomy of decision' from the government. So I think CACs do have some protection against this stuff.

But do the Greek banks fall afoul of this? I don't know. How many Greek banks have been actually, properly nationalised for example? It might leave a bad taste in the mouth to see them vote en bloc in any hypothetical CAC, but then you must have known buying a Greek bond that Greek banks' economic interest is deeply entwined with that of the Greek government.

Comment on: If you're going to CAC, now might be a good time -- Greece edition

SCLC - Thanks for the spot, have fixed.

Comment on: Er, wot's a CFD?

R-Squared - The night has fallen/The bare branches can be seen/Even more lonely

Comment on: Five seven five / Is unsustainable, so / Haircut to seven

CHMed (and iTrade) - That's a very good point and yes, restructured bondholders should be looking at whether/where the terms of Judge Griesa's order mean they could be covered by it. Not only for doing something risky like this (accepting a rerouting) - also uncertainty over whether even simply taking receipt of payments under the existing structure counts as 'co-ordinating' with Argentina, if it made those payments without also paying holdouts. I mentioned this in one of the earlier 'Poker' posts.

And after all, in addition to BNY and other actual parts of the payment chain, the order mentions "attorneys and other agents" of Argentina in relation to the exchange bonds. (Hopefully that answers your first qn, TNJN - the order puts BNY on the spot so much with Argentina simply not paying holdouts using the existing payment structure already...)

Just for the record this is why I am sceptical of rerouting (but think it's important to note that there are views in the market that it could be attempted). The usual upside for Argentina of sticking it to holdouts. But lots of downside for exchange holders - especially when they believe they still have a substantive case to argue against the order (based on due process and so on).

On your second question TNJN - well, that's the million-dollar question. I just think it goes back to what the Second Circuit said (or didn't say) about the applicability of its pari passu interpretation to any official creditors. Either it recognised that official lenders are a different class of creditor, or it has left it open to future challenge. There's also the view that payments to these orgs is not really a legal obligation in the sense that a remedy-seeking holdout might bite onto.

Comment on: Booking bondholder flights to Buenos Aires?

cicero - It's fixed.

Comment on: A reason to be bullish short-term USTs

Richard - Well... there's no English-court version of Judge Griesa (yet) so you might think so.

But (I think) you'd have to make sure your bond was both English law and that it specified English courts as a forum; it would be a real nightmare (for issuers) to have a US court look into English law, find an interpretation of pari passu similar to the one here, and for it then to supply the kind of wide-ranging remedy that's also been established here. (Remedies coming from the law of the court.)

And English courts/English law could also be less kind on other sovereign restructuring tools...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/07/31/1102671/more-on-those-endangered-exit-consents/

Comment on: Poker with Judge Griesa, part two

It's very easy Jackyy - just take the standard market-report cliche of '$X being wiped off Y shares' and reverse it.

Comment on: The Pandit years

BaselBore - Sorry, the European Commission response is in the same Basel doc on EU implementation:

http://www.bis.org/bcbs/implementation/l2_eu.pdf (p. 14 of the PDF)

And the US issue with the "20% lower capital requirements" is on p.10 of the US implementation assessment:

http://www.bis.org/bcbs/implementation/l2_us.pdf

Comment on: Sovereign risk-weighting, face-off du jour

Pharma - no (the retail hit from the bail-in would mostly come in preferred shares)

Comment on: Behind the headline, Spanish deposits edition