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Kate Mackenzie

kate.mackenzie@ft.com

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Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and launch editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

Kate studied Decentralised Collective Bargaining, Pre-Internet Journalism and some stuff vaguely related to economics at a university you haven’t heard of. She worked for two internet service providers back in the mid- to late-1990s and joined the Australian Broadcasting Corporation in 1998 to become one of the country’s first internet journalists, and then held various reporting and editing roles at The Australian newspaper.

Kate is based in Sydney, which makes her working day so odd it was featured on national radio. She is fascinated by China’s economy, commodities, energy, and monetary policy.

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China’s massive credit dependency

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 21 11:07 | Comment |

Friday’s announcement of new daily liquidity operations by the Peoples’ Bank of China has prompted a lot of speculation about what it means for monetary policy in China. The PBoC has historically set rates via tools such as reserve requirement ratios, and prescribing loan and deposit interest rates.*

Societe Generale’s economists believe this is a step towards interest rate liberalisation, and that the PBoC will increasingly use its liquidity operations and repo rates to guide policy rates, rather than prescribed RRR and deposit and lending rates. Read more

Nope, China still has the same old problems

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 21 09:59 | Comment |

You may be feeling China overload after the latest round of GDP and other economic data out on Friday. We are. But it’s usually right about that moment of fatigue that a subject begins to become really interesting again.

The head of China’s statistics bureau declared on Friday that the workforce shrank in 2012; most forecasts hadn’t expected this to happen until 2015. So it’s probably a good moment to debunk any suggestion that the first quarter of year-on-year GDP growth means the Chinese economy is sailing into a calm new era where growth stabilises at about 8 per cent — not quite the 10 per cent of many recent years, but the new normal that reflects a more balanced economy. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 21 05:55 | Comment |

Snow raises fears of UK triple dip || Asian shares mixed || Allianz GI to debut UK infrastructure fund || China Vanke shares soar || Nokia Siemens Networks in first public debt issue || Dreamliner investigations widen || The Bernanke replacement contenders Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 18 05:34 | Comment |

China’s Q4 GDP above forecasts || Asian markets rise, yen falls || Cameron’s EU speech delayed by Algerian hostage crisis || Barclays eyes bonus pool for Libor fines || FAA, Boeing experts examine grounded ANA Dreamliner || Why US companies are really hoarding cash Read more

Reading the China GDP growth entrails

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 18 04:17 | Comment |

China’s GDP grew 7.8 per cent in 2012; the slowest full-year of growth in 10 years, as the FT points out.

However the figure for Q4 was 7.9 per cent; a little above the consensus for 7.8 per cent. This was the first quarterly increase after seven straight quarters of decline, so it’s probably going to be seen as turning point after which China gets back towards the 8 per cent-plus growth that most forecasts are anticipating. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 17 05:46 | Comment |

Virtually all Boeing 787 Dreamliners have been grounded by aviation regulators worldwide, after an incident with an ANA flight on Wednesday. US regulator, the Federal Aviation Administration, ordered operators of the super-advanced jet to stop flying until they could prove their batteries were safe. Shortly afterwards, regulators in all regions with airlines that operate Dreamliners — Japan, India, Chile and Europe — also ordered a halt to flights of the model. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal)

Asian shares declined and the yen strengthened on Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific was poised to fall for a second day after touching a 17-month high earlier this week. The Nikkei Stock Average headed for its biggest two-day drop since November 2011 after the yen reversed its losses. (Bloomberg) Read more

Everyone’s exposure to everyone else

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 16 09:56 | Comment |

An IMF working paper by Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda published last month runs through just how big the exposure is of advanced economies to foreign official debt holders (governments, central banks and the like).

As the authors write, holdings of sovereign debt by the foreign official sector are important, because shifts in the sovereign investor base can affect government borrowing costs and refinancing risks. The composition of sovereign debt holdings can also reveal a vulnerability to bank-sovereign linkages.

So far, so familiar. But stay with us. Read more

When cash costs extra (9% extra)

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 16 08:57 | Comment |

How much would you pay for a bundle of 100 1-renminbi bills?

Is the answer Rmb109? Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 16 05:53 | Comment |

Asian shares fall || Japanese 787 flights suspended after emergency landing || Rajoy calls for Germany to do more || Morgan Stanley to delay bonuses up to 3 years || World Bank cuts global growth forecast || Chinese officials defend export data Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 15 05:37 | Comment |

Yen rises || HMV in administration || JP Morgan ordered to strengthen risk controls || EU berates China over steel subsidies || Dell shares jump on buyout talk reports || EU undoes good work on bank bailouts Read more

The small job creators versus the big non-creators

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 14 18:00 | Comment |

What’s to blame for the sluggish pace of jobs growth in the US economic recovery?

Citi economists Nathan Sheets and Robert Sockin have found evidence that the woes of small businesses might have something to do with it. Read more

China’s non-conforming GDP growth

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 14 11:09 | Comment |

China’s Q4 GDP is due out this Friday. Huzzah!

If you’re wondering how seriously to take it… wonder no more. Read more

About that sovereign-bank link we said we’d break…

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 14 09:41 | Comment |

Wow. So it looks like the EU maybe won’t be breaking the sovereign/bank doom-loop after all!

The FT’s Peter Spiegel has seen a proposal from the European Commission that throws yet more doubt, if such a thing is even possible, on the seriousness of the June 29 eurozone statement that recognised “the imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns”. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 14 05:48 | Comment |

Goldman may delay UK bonuses for tax cut || ESM bank bailouts might be more burdensome than expected || Asian shares rise, yen reaches two-year low || JP Morgan board may release Whale report critical of Dimon || Plan for pan-EU telco market || Goldman says ACA knew about Paulson short || UK financial sackings, suspensions reach five-year high Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 11 05:34 | Comment |

Japan unveils Y10.3tn stimulus: Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, unveiled a Y10.3tn ($116bn) economic stimulus package that the government expects will lift the country’s gross domestic product by 2% and create 600,000 jobs. Y3.8tn will go towards disaster prevention and reconstruction after the March 2011 tsunami and earthquake, while Y3.1tn will be allocated for wealth creation, through measures to improve the competitiveness of Japanese industry and stimulate innovation. Another Y3.1tn will go towards social security such as healthcare and education as well as regional revitalisation.(Financial Times)(Bloomberg)

China’s inflation accelerates after cold spell: The CPI index rose 2.5% in December from a year earlier, compared to a 2.3% median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. November rise was 2%. The nation’s coldest winter in 28 years pushed up vegetable prices in particular. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Read more

Further reading

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 10 08:07 | Comment |

Elsewhere on Thursday,

- The car is most popular, followed by the dog.

- What the cashed-up US conglomerates are up to.

- Africa maybe not growing so fast, after all. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 10 05:46 | Comment |

China’s December trade easily tops expectations || Asian shares rise || M&S confirms poor Christmas || BATS discovers four years of trade prices errors || Basel not so much easier on RMBS or outflows || Deutsche’s Libor exposure, detailed || SEC investigates Herbalife || FT calls for UK referendum on EU membership Read more

China’s (not remotely insignificant) rebalancing challenges

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 09 11:24 | Comment |

A great new year piece from Standard Chartered’s China economist Stephen Green. The country’s economy, he writes, is “running along at a reasonable pace” as 2013 begins. But potential growth is already sliding, he says, and clouds are gathering…

We all know that China’s current growth model is not sustainable. It is not going to collapse tomorrow, but there are clearly problems with it – and we believe those problems have gotten worse in the past couple of years.

The imbalances are not just rich/poor, rural/urban, and east/west, writes Green. There are four key dynamic imbalances affecting the country: Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 09 05:44 | Comment |

Asian stocks rise, yen weakens || HSBC’s Ping An sale in jeopardy || US oil imports forecast to reach 25-year low || Ex-SAC analyst names 20 insider traders || Shroders jettisons PwC as auditor after decades Read more

Steel yourselves: What sub-6% Chinese growth will do to various assets

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 08 12:13 | Comment |

Massive kudos to Societe Generale for attempting to answer a question we’ve long wondered (but figured would be insanely difficult to estimate).

The question is: if China does have a ‘hard landing‘ — or anything significantly below the consensus — how will that affect assets x, y, and z? Read more

Something is afoot in Chinese shadow finance

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 08 09:44 | Comment |

This post is not about another Chinese shadow financing innovation, or the possible or actual blowing up of said innovative products. Nope. Something even worse…

Although the new Chinese leadership seems so far unenthused about major reforms, a few strategists have detected signs in the past couple of weeks that the country’s authorities are preparing to crack down, somehow, on shadow financing. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 08 05:30 | Comment |

Asian markets fall || US banks reach $20bn mortgage settlement || Japan to buy ESM bonds from FX fund || Samsung announces record Q4 profits || HTC misses expectations || Dreamliner fire investigated || Japan pension fund to double gold holdings Read more

A future scenario with oil prices dominated by ‘above-ground’ factors

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 07 09:46 | Comment |

Veteran economist and oil analyst Phil Verleger in his latest note has roundly criticised everyone who forecast in recent years that oil prices would keep rising forever; which he says includes just about everyone who has an opinion about oil prices.

He highlights the work of Morris Adelman, an MIT economist who’s little known these days — unjustly, according to Verleger: Read more

Banks, Here’s your new liquidity regime. Now stop blaming us. Love, Basel

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 07 08:44 | Comment |

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has finalised rules for bank liquidity. Some of the changes had been anticipated in recent weeks, particularly after the US banks ramped up their lobbying efforts. That said, they’re still quite a big departure from the 2010 draft rules, especially on what qualifies as a high quality liquid asset.

The complete set of changes is on the BIS website, but here are some highlights. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Jan 07 05:31 | Comment |

Basel liquidity requirements loosened || $10bn bank mortgage settlement nears || Sony rejoins BMG for Parlophone bid || Citi to submit plan for share buyback || Terra Firma eyes Odeon sale revival || Shell oil rig still stranded in Alaska || UK companies respond to executive pay pressure || Modern economists don’t understand finance Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 21 2012 04:48 | Comment |

‘Plan B’ collapse draws fiscal cliff nearer: Republican House leaders failed to get a vote held on a ‘Plan B’. The failure has led to increased pessimism over whether a deal can be struck, and “marks a serious miscalculation on the part of Mr Boehner, who hoped the measure’s passage would increase his leverage in talks with Barack Obama”. It was unclear how efforts to reach agreement would proceed, with the House adjourned until December 27 and the Senate, apart from meeting for a few hours this afternoon, effectively doing the same. (Financial Times)(Washington Post)

Asian shares and US futures slumped on news of the ‘Plan B’ collapse, while the Yen rose. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 20 2012 05:37 | Comment |

BoJ expands asset purchase programme Y10tn || Asian shares fall || Fiscal cliff talks sour || NYSE/ICE tie-up talks || Carney to get £250k housing allowance || Apax gives up on €9bn target for new fund || Indian shadow banking Read more

Some colour on UBS’ ‘unquantifiable’ Libor misconduct [updated]

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 19 2012 08:17 | Comment |

The FSA’s component of the UBS settlement relating to Libor and Euribor was £160m — the largest fine it has ever imposed.

The UK financial regulator made some revealing comments on the Swiss group’s transgressions, which it says “involved a significant number of employees and occurred over a period of years in a number of countries”: Read more

Further reading

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 19 2012 08:03 | Comment |

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

- The dirty secrets of economics education.

- How entertainment was industrialised.

- Fiscal cliff offers and counteroffers, charted. Read more

UBS pays up

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Dec 19 2012 06:48 | Comment |

UBS will pay a total of CHF1.4bn ($1.5bn) — or, more than three Barclays — in fines and profit disgorgements related to Libor and Euribor claims. The payments will go to US, UK and Swiss regulators. The bank has also warned of losses totalling about CHF2 to 2.5bn for the fourth quarter, largely due to the settlements and provisioning, although CHF500m related to its restructuring.

Here is the statement: Read more

Gao Xu - thanks, there are definitely some constraints on the law, and while I did not know that it sounds reasonable. Will see if the ANZ authors have any thoughts.

Comment on: China's non-conforming GDP growth

Wow, so far these are the nicest comments I've had on an oil supply-related post. Thanks all.

Scepticus, oil demand isn't very elastic in response to price changes. But over time, I think you could be correct.

Chris - I'm probably missing something but are you saying oil prices would fall to equivalent natgas on BTU terms? How would that happen when the two are utilised so differently?

Comment on: A future scenario with oil prices dominated by 'above-ground' factors

AC4757756 - I think as the post mentions a key justification for loosening requirements is they don't want to (or be seen to) inhibit banks facilitating a recovery. Another reason I didn't mention but it was in Brooke's story, I think, was some recent thinking that maybe sovereign bonds weren't the best kind liquid assets to be requiring after all. Mervyn also mentioned in the Q&A; that this was not just bcs of incidence of bad sov debt, but also economies where requiring sov debt could be a problem because the domestic stuff is highly-rated & in short supply (eg Australia, which has already come up with its own workaround called the Committed Liquidity Facility). Also see his speech mentions compromises etc http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp130106.htm and, oh yeah there was a little lobbying going on, apparently... Check this out - http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2011/05/16/569821/how-the-basel-iii-sausage-gets-made/

Comment on: Banks, Here's your new liquidity regime. Now stop blaming us. Love, Basel

vlade - wow, thanks. I will definitely look into the AUM thing some more! *looks nervously at my massive super fund* well, at least it has low fees...

Very interesting re being the market, beta etc. (On Australia again - don't remember exact figures but yes these funds play a big big role in local stockmarket. Yet everyone seems to think Australian pension liabilities are just amazingly well managed because this private but highly regulated system was set-up 20 years ago. But too much of it is in the local equities imho. )

William dL -- as we do censure Kris when he gets too bitter it only seems fair to say that you are a little close to the line there! Though perhaps I'm suffering humour deficiency tonight.

Comment on: Tackling the two-headed monster of efficient markets theory and the principal-agent problem

a-kok, I tend to just do stuff that's happened/been reported since the closer, the DB thing was happening nearly 24 hours earlier. Eg I didn't do the Fed. Most people that get the Cut also get the Closer. Dunno if that works though. Thoughts are very welcome of course.

Comment on: The 6am Cut London

S Saines, it was significant how he talked in more approving -- or, less disapproving -- tones about NGDP targeting.

Comment on: Mark Carney raises NGDP expectations

BBB+ that is, returns that don't deviate too much from benchmark indices in a downward direction :)

Vlade - that's interesting about optimum AUM. Will check it out. Re how often pension holders check their returns... well. I live in Australia where *every* employee must contribute 8.25% of total earnings to a superannuation fund. I'm pretty sure that very few people under 60 pay any attention to what it's invested in or even how the returns compare. The vast majority don't even bother choosing their own fund, they just stay with whoever their employer chose. Future discounting problem.

Comment on: Tackling the two-headed monster of efficient markets theory and the principal-agent problem

BGseventhree - thanks, had an embarrassing brain glitch there. Fixed now!

Comment on: China's November property resurgence

(BTW, Will Penfold = zapped for 1 week & comment removed. )

Comment on: How cancelling central banks' holdings of government debt could be a useful thing

Robert -- yes I meant to go into this question of what it means for the QE exit strategy. I asked Minack & he says along the lines of: govt can issue more debt or the required reserve ratios can be raised to mop up liquidity. Joseph also looked at this a bit in his post I think.

kris. - good point re foreign holdings. Ta.

Everyone else -- I did point this out in the post twice but Minack's point is this might be least unappealing option in the event of another financial crisis, because next time around, choices will be more limited by higher leverage. Not the same as calling for it at all. He was quite clear about that.

Comment on: How cancelling central banks' holdings of government debt could be a useful thing