Masa Serdarevic

masa.serdarevic@ft.com

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Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. Earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch. When the bank collapsed she was pictured walking out of the the building with a box of her belongings. The picture somehow made it to the front of various newspapers, and has seemingly since become a stock image used by picture desks to illustrate anything from greedy bankers to the victims of capitalism. Her friends briefly nicknamed her “the face of the credit crunch” but fortunately it didn’t catch on.

Masa then worked for the playwright David Hare as a researcher on his play ‘The Power of Yes’ at the National Theatre in London.

Her name is pronounced ‘Masha’, because the S has an accent, which makes it a ‘sh’ sound. She has stubbornly refused to change the spelling, even though it would make her life a lot easier.

When not Alphavilling, Masa likes to go to the gym and enjoys sports such as skiing and rowing, but not football. She’s also developing an unaffordable fine wine habit.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

Contact Masa Serdarevic

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Japan unveils Y10.3tn stimulus package || RBS eyes bonus pot to recoup Libor losses || Cold weather fuels Chinese inflation || Eurozone leaders gather in Cyprus || Brussels takes tough stance on Google || ECB hails financial market ‘normalisation’ || Markets update || Alphaville Read more

‘A mercenary UBS with no culture’, apparently

If you wanted to see a group of British MPs not really getting why a group of former UBS execs didn’t get that a Libor scandal was raging under their watch, the only place to be was the Thatcher Room in the House of Commons on Thursday. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

China trade rebound hints at solid growth || UK statistical chiefs leave RPI unchanged || Stay at heart of Europe, US tells Britain || Tesco UK sales show signs of recovery || SEC enforcement chief steps down || BATS reveals multiyear pricing problem || Markets update || Alphaville Read more

Greece’s fragile bond rally

Greece may have an ongoing issue or two, but that didn’t stop its government debt rallying 274 per cent in the second half of last year. Clearly, the driver was the reduced likelihood of it leaving/being kicked out of the eurozone, rather than the (dismal) economics.

Gabriel Sterne at Exotix says the run was one of the “most astounding sovereign bond rallies of all time”, but that the bonds are now over-bought. The declining possibility of a Grexit, he says, is more than fully priced in (his emphasis): Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

- What David Bowie has to teach us about the economics of retirement.

- Dear Basel, does gradualism matter?

- Rage against the coin. Read more

Greek government finds it can’t have its moussaka and eat it

Greece has had a break from the headlines recently, but how long can it last? With a banking system that’s soon going to need shoring up again, probably not long. Read more

Before you write off Chavez…

It’s an expected slap in the face: the worse the reports about Hugo Chavez’ health, the more his country’s debt rallies.

The latest information from the Venezuelan government is that three weeks after his December operation Chavez remains in a Cuban hospital, suffering from a “severe� respiratory infection. Yet, as the FT reports, some think that the government is not disclosing the full details: Read more

In defence of Latvia

It’s fair to say that Latvia’s post-crisis economic trajectory divides opinion. Some see its ultra-austerity approach as a triumph, others as deeply regressive. But it’s hard to argue with the notion that the country has taken a lot of pain and that things are gradually improving. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

US clears Google’s core search business || Chávez battles ‘severe’ lung infection || Labour eyes pension grab to fund jobs || BMW beats Mercedes and Toyota in the US || Transocean in $1.4bn Gulf settlement || Markets update || A stock exchange crash, in Japan || FOMC minutes || Fairytale of New York — in pari passu, anyway || Operating leases – the old skool of off balance sheet vehicles Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

- Explaining the new tell-all Fed.

- And why it triggered a sharp Treasury sell-off.

- Has Ricardian Equivalence killed the Pigou effect? Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

- It was just another day in Beirut.

- Roubini: US has been let down by its leadership.

- So, what is the economic function of politicians? Read more

China’s FX exodus: the suitcase edition

We’ve written a lot about capital outflows from China, what Beijing is doing to try to stem the flows, and how all this impacts the renminbi. Most of the time, the talk is about billions of dollars whizzing around the financial markets, one way or other. Yet, it seems that China’s capital outflow is accelerating even in its simplest form — yes, we mean bundles of cash hidden in suitcases.

It’s seriously old school, and seems almost quaint, but the sums are sizeable. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Congress approves fiscal cliff deal || But battles remain over US budget talks || Lack of grand bargain complicates Obama’s priorities || Eurozone manufacturing falls more than expected || Cameron seeks bold steps from G8 leaders || Posco-led group secures Canada mine stake || Markets update || Euphoria in the banking sector || The Fiscal Fudge – early analysts’ and blogosphere reactions Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

- The Where To Be Born Index, 2013.

- ”The Fed is creating another bubble’ — corporate debt this time.

- Ten objects that show how 3D printing will change the world. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Greece faces ‘make or break’ year || BoJ adds Y10tn to easing programme || UK retail sales flat in November || Beijing criticises US ‘political checks’ || ICE in talks to buy rival NYSE Euronext || Carney to receive £250,000 for housing || Markets update || A grumpy Christmas video to you || What’s bugging gold? || Mind the rate risk Read more

Mind the rate risk

Central banks have kept rates ultra-low since the financial crisis, trying to stimulate economic growth. Whether one regards this as successful or not, one can agree that it has costs. A line item with a particularly nasty looking question mark above it is a corporate bond bubble. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Spotlight swings to interdealer brokers || German business confidence rises again in December || Greek bond bet pays off for hedge fund || Lloyds expects Sandy hit of up to $2.5bn || US party leaders test fiscal cliff plans || Sants secures £3m package at Barclays || China dispute hits Japanese exports || Market update || UBS pays up || The three ‘muscateers’, captain ‘caos’ and Superman Assemble || What China really wants Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Dozens to be implicated in UBS Libor deal || Morgan Stanley fined over Facebook IPO || Apple and Samsung hit by latest US ruling || Boeing increases dividend by 10 per cent || Pro-gun US senator calls for new controls || Markets update || The big question that Starbucks raises, ft. Mr Potato Head || The January effect in European equities || Reserve managers turn sultry eyes towards China Read more

It’s a tough short life

Muddy Waters’ Carson Block has made some big claims about the companies he and his colleagues have targeted and shorted, the latest of which is Olam. But the extent to which the market has been willing to follow his trades has been falling. More importantly, the willingness of sovereigns to support their listed companies has been rising. The combination of the two suggests shorting Block-style is getting less profitable. Read more

And the most corrupt EU state is…

Greece, apparently. Closely followed by Italy.

Those are the conclusions by Transparency International in their latest corruption perceptions index,which looks at how the public sees state sector corruption. The index, which this year includes 176 countries, focuses on perceptions of graft rather than empirical data because of the secrecy surrounding such goings on. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Republicans in capital gains tax fight || Freeport plans return to energy || Schäuble puts brake on bank union plan || Australian economy loses steam || Tesco signals end of American dream || Paulson blames Europe bet for losses || Markets update || Rogoff’s robots! || The positives in cancelling central banks’ holdings of government debt || Why are Shanghai markets suddenly rising? Read more

Olam’s capital raise U-turn – a block on Block?

“We are very comfortable with our balance sheet position, in terms of our equity position as well as our debt position,” Sunny Verghese told Reuters in an interview on Thursday… Asked when Olam was likely to tap the markets at the earliest, Verghese said: “Definitely not in the next five to six months.”

Since that interview we might assume Olam has become less comfortable with its balance sheet position because on Monday the company announced an intriguing $750m rights issue.
Read more

It’s PMI Monday! [updated]

It’s a data-heavy day today, with a slew of PMIs coming out. The US posted the strongest reading in six months with 52.8, which was up from 51.0 in October, suggesting manufacturing is managing moderate expansion.

There was generally solid data from China as well and no very nasty surprises in Europe. Elsewhere, Brazil saw manufacturing activity grow at the fastest rate in nearly two years with a reading of 52.2, up from 50.2 in October. Read more

On trying to read the coming Catalan coalition

Last weekend’s Catalan elections returned perhaps the most difficult-to-read result. Judging by the overall support for separatist parties, there was significant support for at least a referendum on independence. Yet the largest separatist party, the centrist Convergència i Unió, saw its majority in the regional parliament slashed, forcing it to seek a coalition. Read more

So, who’s going to sell their Greek bonds?

Much has been made of the buyback announced as part of the latest Greek debt reduction deal. Mainly because more than half of total debt savings agreed are expected to come from the buyback, according to this leaked doc.

The details of how the scheme is might actually work are pretty thin on the ground, but we know from the leak that the plan is to spend €10.2bn (from the EFSF most likely) buying back and retiring bonds. It is expected that this will lead to a reduction of 11 per cent of GDP by 2020. Read more

FSA approves HKEx takeover of LME

The London Metal Exchange said that the UK’s Financial Services Authority had given approval for its $2.2bn acquisition by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing. The transaction is expected to close next week.

But there are still hurdles. First, a court hearing. From the statement by HKEx: Read more

Olam responds to Muddy Waters

Following Muddy Waters’ report on why it’s shorting Olam, released yesterday, the company has released a detailed defence. In fact, it’s 45 pages long… Read more

Muddy Waters (finally) publishes report on Olam

Carson Block has faced some criticism in the past couple of days (such as from the FT’s Lex) for the week-long delay in releasing the promised Muddy Waters’ report on Singapore-based Olam International.

But the wait is over. The report was published on Monday night. Block has not skimped on his allegations, so have a new ink cartridge ready if you’re planning on printing out all 133 pages. Read more

Meet the new BofE governor

Rather unexpectedly, Mark Carney gets the job.

Read more

Eurogroup meets for third go at kicking can down the road

The Eurogroup meets on Monday for the third time in as many weeks to discuss Greece’s finances. Maybe third time’s the charm?

The focus remains on getting an agreement on the country’s medium-term debt sustainability. The reason for that is two-fold. First, it’s necessary to appease the IMF given its insistence on a haircut (which is politically very difficult for many of the member countries). Second, with the German elections taking place next September, it’s seen as best for all concerned to agree some sort of solution that will allow the question of Greece’s longer-term sustainability to be ignored until late 2013. Read more

@ a-kok, thanks for gastronomic spelling suggestions! The FT uses 'moussaka', like the BBC, so will have to stick to that.

Comment on: Greek government finds it can't have its moussaka and eat it

@carlosalonso and RiskyBoy, thank you, I've fixed the two factual points raised.

@RiskyBoy, v interesting points, thank you. One smart grannie you had!

Comment on: On trying to read the coming Catalan coalition

@ Kris.

Olam is a Singapore-based company, with most operations in Africa and India, run by an Indian. Its links to China are pretty secondary.

Comment on: Muddy Waters' next target: Olam

@ genauer: Thanks, have fixed the typo.

Comment on: Further reading

@ genauer: Here's the list: http://carachancelermerkel.blogspot.pt/p/subscritoresas.html

Comment on: Portugal's growing discontent

It looks like El Mundo is reporting that Mas will call early elections, for 25 Nov or 2 Dec:

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2012/09/25/barcelona/1348577304.html.

Comment on: Viva España? Spain's other crisis

@ Bazza
The post refers to the movement of labour in the EU, not the currency union, so let's stick to that. It makes a very limited argument, that given all the many other problems, the project has been pretty good at allocating labour at the European level. There is such a thing as the European level, as well as the American level.

I'm not saying this makes the whole project a success by any means. But how would the situation be better if the unemployed or underemployed engineer/academic/whatever in Athens stayed there, doing not a lot, while another country needed their skills? Greece wouldn't be benefiting, neither would the other country and neither would the person themselves.

Comment on: Benefiting from Greece's brain drain

@marquez1234
I take your point. The figures are not overwhelming. But the brain drain is more than just X number of people leaving in year Y to work abroad. It's also how many Greek students go abroad to university and just stay there, rather than returning home as they'd have porbably done before the crisis; and about the (potentially) lower quality of education Greek students will receive, after the best university professors have taken jobs elsewhere. It's also a case of how many skilled foreigners decide not to go work in Greece when before the crisis they might have done etc etc. And all this is impossible to measure. The language barrier, speaking from personal experience and as the above video suggests, is a temporary barrier at best.

Comment on: Benefiting from Greece's brain drain

No discussion of Nazis or Hitler please.

Comment on: Oh, no. Greece mentioned the war...

We just published a post focusing on Magnus' broader thesis: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/09/10/1152371/can-asia-avoid-the-middle-income-trap/

And added the full note to the usual place...

Comment on: How technology is killing the Asian growth miracle