Masa Serdarevic

masa.serdarevic@ft.com

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Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. Earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch. When the bank collapsed she was pictured walking out of the the building with a box of her belongings. The picture somehow made it to the front of various newspapers, and has seemingly since become a stock image used by picture desks to illustrate anything from greedy bankers to the victims of capitalism. Her friends briefly nicknamed her “the face of the credit crunch” but fortunately it didn’t catch on.

Masa then worked for the playwright David Hare as a researcher on his play ‘The Power of Yes’ at the National Theatre in London.

Her name is pronounced ‘Masha’, because the S has an accent, which makes it a ‘sh’ sound. She has stubbornly refused to change the spelling, even though it would make her life a lot easier.

When not Alphavilling, Masa likes to go to the gym and enjoys sports such as skiing and rowing, but not football. She’s also developing an unaffordable fine wine habit.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

Contact Masa Serdarevic

Dear Ben, David and Doug, thanks but no thanks. Love, Sareb

When good opportunities are scarce, hedgies will seek them in rather unlikely places.

Take Sareb, the Spanish ‘bad bank’ in the process of raising €250m in new equity for the second round of asset transfers from the country’s beleaguered lenders. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

EU leaders near €960bn budget deal || Apple under pressure on $137bn cash pile || Sony’s sells property rather than TVs || China denies targeting Japanese ship || Dell to repatriate $7bn of overseas cash || China trade growth hints at strong 2013 || Bloomberg’s British empire || Investments pay off for KKR || Markets update: Closing out a fairly volatile week in a more positive mood Read more

Let’s wait for a fall in stocks before declaring a great rotation

With all the excitement about ‘the great rotation’, it often feels that the debate focuses too much on analysing the recent flows, and less about the greed/fear dynamics driving them.

It’s been well documented that bond holders are increasingly frustrated by the miserable yields on offer in the fixed income markets, and are apparently flocking into the ‘cheap’ equity markets. We’ve already voiced our scepticism about the scale of this flocking. Yet what’s potentially also underestimated is the degree of skittishness by bond holders when the stock markets show signs of a wobble. After all, a lot of capital in fixed income got there after investors were burnt in the early 2000s. This loss aversion shouldn’t be underestimated. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Rate-fixing scandal rocks three continents || Monte dei Paschi aided by covert loan || UK December industrial output rose in December || Sony hit by quarterly net loss || Credit Suisse raises cost-cutting targets || Dividend hurdle almost derailed Dell deal || Obama orders release of drone details || Murdoch shrugs off Liberty threat to BSkyB || Markets update: Struggling for momentum Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

- The simplicity of Chinese fraud.

- Are we too scared, or not scared enough?

- The fantasies that make DC insiders feel goodRead more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

US DoJ accuses S&P of $5bn fraud || BlackBerry’s Z10 enjoys strong reception || Google wins landmark Australian legal case || Liberty Global confirms Virgin Media bid || Cable revives RBS privatisation plan || Claims may push BP’s spill bill to $90bn || UK house prices dip on month in January || Abe blasts China over maritime incident || Markets: Stock indices inching back to recent multi-year highs Read more

Dell goes private for $13.65 per share

As was widely expected, the computer maker has struck a deal to go private – for a whopping $24.4bn. The price per share is at the higher end of the $13.50 to $13.75 reported.

The statement from the company is here:

  • Dell stockholders to receive $13.65 per share in cash
  • Transaction valued at approximately $24.4 billion
  • Transaction implies a 37 percent premium over the average closing share price during the previous 90 calendar days ending Jan. 11, 2013

 Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Foxconn plans Chinese union vote || Powerless Super Bowl disrupts advertisers || JAL increases full year forecasts || Argentina proposes new debt swap || Julius Baer boosted by Merrill Lynch || Chinese banks venture into ecommerce || Markets: Global stocks trading at 4½-year highs Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

US banks squeezed as mortgage profits hit || Hagel grilled by angry Republicans || US challenges AB InBev’s Modelo deal || Explosion at Mexico’s Pemex HQ kills 25 || Wasendorf jailed for 50 years for fraud || Markets update: a tentatively positive start to month Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

- Relax: banks’ risk measurements are rarely off by much more than a factor of ten.

- OCC leadership gets another surprise overhaul.

- Why the markets cannot influence financial institutions. Read more

China’s two paths to urbanisation

China’s growing demographic challenges have been well documented and their economic impact much discussed. So how about urbanisation being touted as the solution?

After all, more people working in cities generally means more productive workers, hard to argue with that. But Beijing’s traditional policy of encouraging urbanisation through greater infrastructure investment is getting ever diminishing returns. If the government really wants more people to move to the cities, argues Wei Yao at Société Générale, it must start treating its new urbanites better. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Costs drag Deutsche Bank to €2.2bn loss || FSA targets banks on interest rate swaps || Chinese hackers target New York Times || US economy slips into reverse || Chinese steel mills face tax pressure || Russia concerned over Israeli air strike || Markets update: a pretty meek finish to a very strong month for stocks Read more

A declining but distorted euro M3

The release of December’s euroland M3 and lending data on Monday got a bit more attention than usual following last week’s larger-than-expected LTRO repayments. Could, we wondered, there be further evidence of the regions financial markets are healing?

The picture was mixed, with a number of likely distortions confusing things, but on the whole it was probably a bit more positive than negative. Read more

The shape of discretionary spending in emerging markets

There may be signs that the wealthiest few zillionaires in emerging markets are outgrowing their love of bling or at least becoming more discerning.

But the fashion houses in Milan and Paris are unlikely to be losing sleep over that. Because for many millions in the EM, success and status remains all too bound up with having Chanel’s double-Cs on their handbag or an Ω on their wrist. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Apple stock sheds 10% on growth worries || Japan records its largest ever trade deficit || Jaguar profit warning dents Tata Motors || North Korea threatens new nuclear test || Fortescue predicts iron ore price drop || South Korean growth hits three-year low || Google: Feds requesting more user data || Markets: Shares mixed on divergent data Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Japan probes Boeing battery supplier || West faces ‘decades’ of conflict in N Africa || Obama sworn in for second term || Lower Saxony blow for Merkel re-election || Huawei pledges openness to woo critics || Richemont misses estimates || Cameron’s EU speech to come this week || Markets: European stocks flirting with best levels in nearly two years Read more

All pain and no (productivity) gains

One of the reasons that the eurozone’s peripherals should be willing to put up with austerity is that it’s helping address internal balances and address falls in competitiveness. That’s the story being sold by the politicians at least. But now that the crisis is coming into its fifth year, there is a decent amount of data that allows us to see if those imbalances are indeed being corrected and that lost competitiveness regained.

James Nixon at SocGen has has done some clever number crunching with unit labour costs in the most crisis-hit eurozone countries since 2000, and found that any apparent improvements in competitiveness are likely to be fleeting. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

- Debating Tim Geithner’s legacy.

- Here’s the transcript of his WSJ interview.

- The economics of America’s great geographic divergenceRead more

Will Cyprus be bailed out by gas?

We’ve been writing about Cyprus for a while, since the country has been scampering after Greece down the road to a bailout.

But there are differences, big differences, between the two, and not just the obvious ones such as the size of bailout needed and Cyprus’ inconvenient Russian connection.

The main one, argue Michael Michaelides and Harvinder Sian at RBS, happens to be Cyprus’ gas reserves. That’s should make the unpalatable task of bailing the country out go down a lot more easily – if the politicians have the foresight. Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

- The currency wars are good for precious metals.

- Ideology as cognitive bias.

- Why you want a woman to manage your money. Read more

A bit of post-Sohn naming and shaming

The 17th annual Sohn conference took place last May in New York and drew a star-studded panel of fund managers to offer (a few of) their best trade ideas.

Everyone was there, from David Einhorn to John Paulson and Bill Ackman. Topics as diverse as palladium, French CDS and Argentina’s sovereign debt were discussed.

But were the trade ideas any good? Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Japan’s airlines ground Dreamliner fleets || Hardliners shift stance on US debt ceiling || Morgan Stanley defers bonuses for top staff || Silver Lake at centre of Dell deal talks || Facebook ramps up Google search fight || Alibaba Group reported to have hired Credit Suisse and Goldman for IPO || Apple rolls out China credit facility || White House questions Syrian weapons claim || Markets: mostly in the red Read more

What would a post-Chávez Venezuela look like?

The state of Hugo Chávez’s health continues to be a closely guarded secret, yet his inability to attend his own inauguration last week suggests it remains delicate. While his absence from the ceremony last week is seemingly no bar to Chávez continuing his third term as president, a new election would of course have to be called in case he is unable to continue in his post due to his health, or in case he dies.

So what would happen then? What would Chavismo look like without the man himself? And how would the opposition react to this? Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Obama warns Republicans on debt limit || Amplats outlines radical SA overhaul || Slowing German economic growth || JPMorgan under fire for ‘whale’ errors || HMV calls in the administrators || Westminster hits at Goldman Sachs bonus plan || Junk bond prices point to return of bulls || Demand fears bruise Apple’s share price || Markets: mixed but erring on the soft side Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Japan unveils Y10.3tn stimulus package || RBS eyes bonus pot to recoup Libor losses || Cold weather fuels Chinese inflation || Eurozone leaders gather in Cyprus || Brussels takes tough stance on Google || ECB hails financial market ‘normalisation’ || Markets update || Alphaville Read more

‘A mercenary UBS with no culture’, apparently

If you wanted to see a group of British MPs not really getting why a group of former UBS execs didn’t get that a Libor scandal was raging under their watch, the only place to be was the Thatcher Room in the House of Commons on Thursday. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

China trade rebound hints at solid growth || UK statistical chiefs leave RPI unchanged || Stay at heart of Europe, US tells Britain || Tesco UK sales show signs of recovery || SEC enforcement chief steps down || BATS reveals multiyear pricing problem || Markets update || Alphaville  Read more

Greece’s fragile bond rally

Greece may have an ongoing issue or two, but that didn’t stop its government debt rallying 274 per cent in the second half of last year. Clearly, the driver was the reduced likelihood of it leaving/being kicked out of the eurozone, rather than the (dismal) economics.

Gabriel Sterne at Exotix says the run was one of the “most astounding sovereign bond rallies of all time”, but that the bonds are now over-bought. The declining possibility of a Grexit, he says, is more than fully priced in (his emphasis): Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

- What David Bowie has to teach us about the economics of retirement.

- Dear Basel, does gradualism matter?

- Rage against the coinRead more

Greek government finds it can’t have its moussaka and eat it

Greece has had a break from the headlines recently, but how long can it last? With a banking system that’s soon going to need shoring up again, probably not long. Read more

@ a-kok, thanks for gastronomic spelling suggestions! The FT uses 'moussaka', like the BBC, so will have to stick to that.

Comment on: Greek government finds it can't have its moussaka and eat it

@carlosalonso and RiskyBoy, thank you, I've fixed the two factual points raised.

@RiskyBoy, v interesting points, thank you. One smart grannie you had!

Comment on: On trying to read the coming Catalan coalition

@ Kris.

Olam is a Singapore-based company, with most operations in Africa and India, run by an Indian. Its links to China are pretty secondary.

Comment on: Muddy Waters' next target: Olam

@ genauer: Thanks, have fixed the typo.

Comment on: Further reading

@ genauer: Here's the list: http://carachancelermerkel.blogspot.pt/p/subscritoresas.html

Comment on: Portugal's growing discontent

It looks like El Mundo is reporting that Mas will call early elections, for 25 Nov or 2 Dec:

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2012/09/25/barcelona/1348577304.html.

Comment on: Viva España? Spain's other crisis

@ Bazza
The post refers to the movement of labour in the EU, not the currency union, so let's stick to that. It makes a very limited argument, that given all the many other problems, the project has been pretty good at allocating labour at the European level. There is such a thing as the European level, as well as the American level.

I'm not saying this makes the whole project a success by any means. But how would the situation be better if the unemployed or underemployed engineer/academic/whatever in Athens stayed there, doing not a lot, while another country needed their skills? Greece wouldn't be benefiting, neither would the other country and neither would the person themselves.

Comment on: Benefiting from Greece's brain drain

@marquez1234
I take your point. The figures are not overwhelming. But the brain drain is more than just X number of people leaving in year Y to work abroad. It's also how many Greek students go abroad to university and just stay there, rather than returning home as they'd have porbably done before the crisis; and about the (potentially) lower quality of education Greek students will receive, after the best university professors have taken jobs elsewhere. It's also a case of how many skilled foreigners decide not to go work in Greece when before the crisis they might have done etc etc. And all this is impossible to measure. The language barrier, speaking from personal experience and as the above video suggests, is a temporary barrier at best.

Comment on: Benefiting from Greece's brain drain

No discussion of Nazis or Hitler please.

Comment on: Oh, no. Greece mentioned the war...

We just published a post focusing on Magnus' broader thesis: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/09/10/1152371/can-asia-avoid-the-middle-income-trap/

And added the full note to the usual place...

Comment on: How technology is killing the Asian growth miracle