Middle East set to dominate Kerry tour

John Kerry billed his first overseas trip this week as US secretary of state as a “listening tour”, but his hosts will want to ask him urgent questions about Syria, Iran and the Israel-Palestine peace process.

Mr Kerry, the former senator and presidential candidate, set off on Sunday for an 11-day visit to nine countries, which will probably be dominated by events in the Middle East.

His predecessor Hillary Clinton chose to go to Asia on her maiden trip – a signal of priorities from the new Obama administration – but Mr Kerry’s agenda has a more conventional sound, starting on Monday morning with breakfast at 10 Downing Street and including a brisk tour of European and Middle East capitals.

The trip is a chance for Mr Kerry to set the tone for his tenure at the state department, which his aides say will aim for a more low-key style of diplomacy after the star status that Mrs Clinton enjoyed.

However, at each stage Mr Kerry will face questions about whether the Obama administration’s positions on various issues in the Middle East are shifting.

“The US cannot pivot to Asia as long as the Middle East is in the condition it is in,” says Aaron David Miller, a former state department official now at the Wilson Center, a Washington think-tank.

The discussions about Syria have been given impetus by the revelation this month from Leon Panetta, defence secretary, that most of the US national security team had supported arming the Syrian rebels last year, only for the advice to be rejected by the White House.

Officials say there are no imminent plans to review the decision, but Mr Kerry is bound to be asked to explain the administration’s thinking on the civil war.

Analysts say one of Mr Kerry’s goals will be to explore if there are any remaining prospects of pushing peace talks and a diplomatic outcome to the civil war in Syria. “My goal is to see us change his calculation,” Mr Kerry said last week of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. “My goal is to see us have a negotiated outcome and minimise the violence, but it may not be possible.”

While in Berlin he will hold talks with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, with whom there have been signs of tension: it took Mr Lavrov five days last week to return a call from Mr Kerry. He will also meet Syrian opposition leaders and visit Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two countries that have been supplying arms to rebel groups within Syria.

Mr Kerry will also visit Cairo, where the tone of his comments about the Muslim Brotherhood will be closely watched. The Obama administration has been struggling to find a way to pressure the Egyptian government to respect the rule of law without encouraging stronger opposition to the US.

Mr Kerry had been expected to visit Israel, but with Barack Obama, US president, now going to Israel next month, he will not stop over in Jerusalem. Analysts said that with no government yet in place in Israel and the Obama administration still working out its second-term approach to the peace process, it made sense to avoid the country. However, Mr Kerry is likely to be told by other governments that time is running out for the negotiation of a two-state solution.

The trip coincides with the resumption of talks in Kazakhstan between Iran and the major powers over its nuclear programme. With Iran holding its own presidential elections in June, few observers are expecting a breakthrough before then, although US allies will be eager to hear the administration’s thinking on how long Mr Obama is willing to allow talks to continue.