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Kate Mackenzie

kate.mackenzie@ft.com

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Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and launch editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

Kate studied Decentralised Collective Bargaining, Pre-Internet Journalism and some stuff vaguely related to economics at a university you haven’t heard of. She worked for two internet service providers back in the mid- to late-1990s and joined the Australian Broadcasting Corporation in 1998 to become one of the country’s first internet journalists, and then held various reporting and editing roles at The Australian newspaper.

Kate is based in Sydney, which makes her working day so odd it was featured on national radio. She is fascinated by China’s economy, commodities, energy, and monetary policy.

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The Chinese PMI circus [Updated]

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 25 09:50 | Comment |

The flash HSBC/Markit China PMI number for February: 50.4. That’s a four-month low and quite a drop from 52.3 of January. Yet, as HSBC’s Hongbin Qu reminds us, it’s also the fourth consecutive month of expansion above 50 — the level which demarcates between above-trend and sub-trend growth.

So, what to make of it? Well firstly, Chinese New Year happened in February and, yes, you probably need to treat January and February data with caution because this holiday a) can fall in either month, and b) is huge. Read more

Kuroda! The BoJ’s goldilocks

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 25 09:29 | Comment |

This Monday edition of rising Japanese equities/weak yen is brought to you by Haruhiko Kuroda, president of the Asian Development Bank and according to various media reports, the likely nominee for Bank of Japan governor.

Kuroda reportedly said early this month he was quite happy at the ADB and had nearly four years to serve of his third term. But to that we say: Mark Carney! Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 25 05:47 | Comment |

Asian markets rise, yen weakens || Kuroda tipped for BoJ governor || China flash PMIs surprisingly weak || Italians go to polls || Osborne in difficult position after downgrade || Scottish currency battle looms || RBS may sell part of Citizen || RBS to pay Direct Line advisers more || BP in holding pattern  Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 21 05:49 | Comment |

Asian markets fall after FOMC minutes || China talks of more property curbs || US Congress to target Target2 Iran-linked transfers || RSA investors unhappy at dividend cut || FSA’s Libor report coming soonish || Foxconn hiring freeze hurts Apple shares || Questions after Sony PS4 announcement || Fed wants to expand beyond primary dealers  Read more

RBNZ is NOT the one

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 20 08:51 | Comment |

Don’t go messing with the kiwi! The governor of New Zealand’s central bank, Graeme Wheeler, was pretty clear in a speech earlier today:

We believe the exchange rate is significantly over-valued relative to what would be sustainable long term in the absence of sizeable increases in the terms of trade and productivity. Read more

Japan trade figures, perhaps not so bad

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 20 08:45 | Comment |

The weaker yen hasn’t done much for Japan’s exports so far, with preliminary data out today showing another record in Japan’s trade deficit. Exports were 6.4 per cent higher, year-on-year, in January and failed to raise as much as imports (up 7.3 per cent). This brought the trade deficit to Y1.63bn.

Societe Generale say not to worry yet, however. Firstly, those figures are not seasonally-adjusted. Month-on-month seasonally-adjusted numbers show the trade deficit shrank from Y678.9bn in January from a revised Y783.8bn in December. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 20 05:49 | Comment |

Asian markets rise || Kloppers to be replaced by inside geologist || €3.5bn buyout plan for France’s Elior || Italy’s centre-left woos Monti || Dell shareholders maintain criticism of buyout after earnings fall || Isle of Man tax haven horizon || China FDI falls again || JGB dog that didn’t bark Read more

EU carbon market gets a reprieve

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 19 12:17 | Comment |

The European parliament’s environment committee voted in favour of a plan to allow “backloading” of carbon permits. It’s the somewhat significant vote that follows the less significant vote by another committee in January, which helped prompt a big crash in carbon markets at the time.

It’s curious that in this little corner of EU co-ordination, a little good news doesn’t even provide a brief rally; prices fell more than 20 per cent after news of the vote. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 19 05:53 | Comment |

Asian markets mixed || Aso says no intentions to buy foreign bonds || Cameron calls for faster RBS reforms || Nestle ensnared in horse meat scandal || Key EU ETS decision today || Fed exit worries || Nat Rothschild’s chances of Bumi win hit by share sale || EU weighs new Google crackdown || BP gears up for big Deepwater Horizon trial || Fear losing ground to greed Read more

[Updated] Yes, but how much did China REALLY grow in 2012? How about 5.5%?

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 18 10:20 | Comment |

We’ve read two very interesting and distinct pieces of analysis today that raise quite dramatic questions about China’s GDP data. Yes, we know you probably weren’t too credulous to begin with, but the details of both are interesting. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 18 05:12 | Comment |

Japanese stocks rallied and the yen fell on Monday as the G20 did not single out the country for criticism over currency manipulation. The yen weakened 0.6% to 94.12 and the Nikkei rose 2.3% by early afternoon in Tokyo, pulling the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 0.5% higher. (Bloomberg)(Reuters)

G20 to Japan: Just don’t talk about it. At the weekend, global finance ministers “signaled Japan has scope to keep stimulating its stagnant economy as long as policy makers cease publicly advocating a sliding yen”.(Bloomberg) Meanwhile Japan’s president Shinzo Abe on Monday referred again to changing the BoJ’s remit: “It would be necessary to proceed with revising the BOJ law if the central bank cannot produce results under its own mandate,” he said, referring to the new 2% inflation target. (Wall Street Journal) Read more

Muto ado about something

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 15 10:04 | Comment |

It’s the latest in Japanese swings and roundabouts, pushing the yen higher and JGB yields and stocks lower… What to blame? What to blame?

 Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 15 05:39 | Comment |

Asian markets lower || Muto reportedly leading BoJ contender || Tullett Prebon drawn into Libor scandal || Dell on offensive over buyout || Portugal confident of bond market return || Lehman wants to talk to London Whale || Browett returns to UK high st after Apple || The EU FISH Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 14 05:41 | Comment |

Japan’s economy failed to grow in Q4 || Asian markets higher on Abenomics hopes || BoJ continues as expected || US banks, Treasury, etc criticise EU Tobin tax || AMR-US Airways deal agreed || Google sues BT over patent || Macro funds do well on Abenomics yen short || CITIC buys stake in Australia’s Alumina || Barclays puts everything first Read more

Currency wars. You’re doing it wrong.

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 13 08:27 | Comment |

A predictable response to the utter confusion around yesterday’s G7 statement:

Nikkei 1day chart - Feb 13, 2013 Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 13 05:46 | Comment |

Japan stocks fall, yen rises || Obama challenges congress on wages, guns, climate || Public IT suppliers’ tax scrutinised || BlackRock hires MS banker as CFO || Comcast buys remainder of NBC from GE || Dell buyout opposition grows || UBS’ Kengeter to resign || Helicopter money, for and against Read more

Big shifts ahead in Chinese energy consumption

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 12 10:50 | Comment |

China’s energy consumption is legendary (okay, its everything consumption is legendary). More coal, oil, hydro, solar, and wind power than… than just about anyone. The coal numbers in particular are mind-boggling. By 2011 China was consuming almost as much coal (3.8bn tonnes) as the rest of the world combined (4.3bn tonnes).

The figures on oil consumption are almost as striking. They consume about 10m barrels a day; more than 10 per cent of world production. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 12 05:06 | Comment |

North Korean nuclear test suspected after earthquake || Currency wars anticipation heightened ahead of G20 || Yen falls, Nikkei soars || Autonomy accounts to be investigated || Barclays’ big day || EDF wants state backing for UK reactors || Nasdaq and Carlyle held ill-fated talks || Currency wars or just monetary policy? Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 11 05:20 | Comment |

Cyprus bail-in proposed || Barclays to cut at least £2bn from costs || Small UK banks face risk-weight disadvantage || Eurofin meeting today || US/AMR merger could be this week || EU to hold strong on data privacy for foreign companies || Snow affects mass transit in US north-east || City job vacancies down 18% in January || China is world’s biggest goods trader || State of the Nation previews || Asian markets mostly closed Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 07 05:48 | Comment |

Asian shares lower || Anglo Irish Bank liquidated || ECB meeting today || Mark Carney before Parliament today || Cantor Fitzgerald in late-stage talks with Seymour Pierce || PBoC signals inflation fear || Solvency II costs ‘indefensible’ || Boeing developing 787 battery changes  Read more

Will China’s demographic shift force a fall in investment share?

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 06 11:41 | Comment |

We’ve recently heard an interesting suggestion that China’s ageing population — generally a bad thing for growth — might also have the positive side-effect of inducing a transition away from the country’s unusually high ratio of investment to consumption. But will it?  Read more

China’s challenges, explained in three easy charts

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 06 11:09 | Comment |

The first one probably needs no introduction:

China - changing age composition - Nomura ICMR Read more

A gesture, at least, towards Chinese redistribution and rebalancing

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 06 09:52 | Comment |

After eight years and much delay, China’s State Council has released its long-awaited plan for addressing income inequality. It seems everyone agrees it hits all the right notes, without persuasively committing to many concrete changes.  Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 06 05:47 | Comment |

Cable revives RBS privatisation plan: “Business secretary Vince Cable will today revive a radical plan to return Royal Bank of Scotland to private sector hands by distributing free shares to the public as the majority state-owned bank announces a £390m Libor settlement with UK and US regulators… That proposal was dismissed by George Osborne when it was floated by Nick Clegg in 2011 but the chancellor’s aides now say the idea is “interesting”.” (Financial Times)

Asian stocks rose and the Nikkei was heading for the highest close in four years, as Toyota raised its profit forecast and the weaker yen boosted the earnings outlook for exporters. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 1.1% higher in early afternoon, Tokyo time. (Bloomberg) Read more

The great rotation: Not so great, and not even really a rotation

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 05 12:14 | Comment |

The ‘great rotation’ from bonds into equities: a few weeks ago it was looking like it might be seriously on. Even Albert Edwards sort of kind of said equities were cheap. And Ray Dalio said it is happening, too.

But there are a bunch of reasons why it doesn’t seem to be quite such a sure thing, at least for now. Read more

UBS bonuses go bail-inable

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 05 09:01 | Comment |

UBS reported a fourth quarter loss of CHF1.2bn — actually CHF1.9bn, when considering Libor fines and other regulatory and legal costs, plus restructuring costs. The loss came in a little lower than the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The full monstrous PDF is here, but meanwhile, we note the FT’s Daniel Schäfer scooped an interesting change to the bank’s bonus policy for its 6,500 highest earners: Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 05 04:44 | Comment |

Liberty Global preparing Virgin Media bid || Asian markets fall on Spain, Italy fears || KPN finalising plans to raise €2bn – €4bn || SGX considers LCH.Clearnet stake || S&P to face DoJ civil case over mortgage ratings || British retail sales up 1.9% || Australia holds rates at 3% || BP Gulf settlement could take another year  Read more

That ring fence will be electrified after all

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 04 10:08 | Comment |

So, it’s happening. The Banking Reform bill to be published today will give the Treasury and the bank regulator the power to break up a bank that doesn’t respect the ringfence between retail banking and the riskier stuff. Read more

Further reading

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 04 08:16 | Comment |

Elsewhere on Monday,

- Why centralised capital models don’t necessarily mean no diversification.

- What is the least bad investment?

- Some not-very-encouraging D-list data. Read more

The 6am Cut London

Kate is FT AV’s Asia Correspondent. She joined FT Alphaville in mid-2011 after carrying out various roles in the FT’s London office since 2005: interactive editor, companies reporter, and founding editor of the FT’s Energy Source blog.

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| Feb 04 05:46 | Comment |

Barclays CFO and general counsel to depart: Finance chief Chris Lucas and general counsel Mark Harding, its general counsel, will both be retiring in coming months. Lucas, 52, will remain in post until the lender finds a replacement, a process which could take up to a year as his successor is likely to come from outside the bank – a move to signal a clean break with the past, people familiar with the matter said. The announcements came two weeks before new chief executive Antony Jenkins unveils his plan for the bank. Jenkins said both had said they wanted to step down late last year. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal)

Asian markets rose on Monday, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 0.9% higher on economic data from the US and China and Japanese earnings. (Bloomberg) Read more

ecoute sauvage, was 'fat female' a necessary part of your description? I am disappointed.

Comment on: Elon Musk vs The New York Times

Nobby - agreed, I regret not including Amari etc.

Comment on: The 6am Cut London

Okay, something weird is happening with that link, so have put the link in the text instead.

Comment on: Go-To Barc (updated with slides)

thanks SimonC - Paul just in transit now but think I've fixed it.

Comment on: Go-To Barc (updated with slides)

Fiatsceptic good point on hukou reform. Iinteresting they didn't seem to mention that much because it is very important as you say. As far as I can tell, just about every pre-condition for rebalancing is mentioned... But very few hard numbers as Wei says.

Comment on: A gesture, at least, towards Chinese redistribution and rebalancing

Tom_ and Finster -- I should have written this in the post, but worth reading the full transcript of Dalio's comments to get a better grasp of what he's saying. He revisits the topic a few times through the discussion.

Comment on: The great rotation: Not so great, and not even really a rotation

mitgleid, the Rockoff paper (I just added the link above, towards the end of the post) makes a very interesting read.

Comment on: The surprisingly long path to US monetary union

or perhaps not -- thanks, that is a very worthwhile read by the authors of Red Capitalism, I will add it to the Related links.

Comment on: China's massive credit dependency

Yikes - there are a lot of new applications since this post went up. Please be patient if you're in the queue :)

Comment on: Overheard in the Long Room...

Andao -- ha, the smoke-filled rooms... the thing is, from reading various accounts of this, it's all happening more or less in the open. But different sorts of 'grey' instruments spring up in different regions; and the products are continually evolving. That's my 2nd-hand impression, anyway.

Lloyd Chin - yes re Fitch number. The govt 'total social financing' figure is a bit odd in that it includes some forms of equity. And of course it won't include all the 'grey' financing. Fitch's estimates I think would be pretty good as Charlene Chu follows shadow banking quite closely.

Kris. - you might find this interesting if you haven't seen it already http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/20/world/asia/in-china-discontent-among-the-normally-faithful.html

Comment on: China's massive credit dependency