Masa Serdarevic

masa.serdarevic@ft.com

Biography
Latest posts
Latest comments

Masa joined the FT in 2009 and has worked on a number of desks across the paper, including Companies, Markets and Comment. She spent much of 2010 in New York covering the US equity markets. Earlier this year she finally saw the light and moved to Alphaville.

She started her career in the investment banking division at Lehman Brothers in the summer of 2007, timing it perfectly with the beginning of the credit crunch. When the bank collapsed she was pictured walking out of the the building with a box of her belongings. The picture somehow made it to the front of various newspapers, and has seemingly since become a stock image used by picture desks to illustrate anything from greedy bankers to the victims of capitalism. Her friends briefly nicknamed her “the face of the credit crunch” but fortunately it didn’t catch on.

Masa then worked for the playwright David Hare as a researcher on his play ‘The Power of Yes’ at the National Theatre in London.

Her name is pronounced ‘Masha’, because the S has an accent, which makes it a ‘sh’ sound. She has stubbornly refused to change the spelling, even though it would make her life a lot easier.

When not Alphavilling, Masa likes to go to the gym and enjoys sports such as skiing and rowing, but not football. She’s also developing an unaffordable fine wine habit.

She studied philosophy, politics and economics at Oxford University.

Contact Masa Serdarevic

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Osborne to hand Carney more powers || Google tip-off leads to Microsoft EU penalty || BoJ rejects call for monetary easing || Aviva slashes payout after £3bn loss || Icahn muscles in on Dell deal || KPMG at risk of losing vital HSBC audit || Time Warner to spin off magazines || Equities rally sparks gold funds sell-off || Markets: Markets await central bank decisions Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez dies || Samsung buys stake in Sharp || FBI joins SEC in computer trading probe || Legal and General dividend rise allays investor gloom || Microsoft faces EU fine for breaking pact || North Korea mixes Dennis with menace || Bolshoi star confesses to acid attack || Markets update: Global stocks are on course for a fresh four-year high Read more

Mapping future food inflation

Food prices are not a topic we cover often cover, but then a note from Toscafund landed in our inbox arguing that there’s no impending food supply crisis. Indeed, worries about surging inflation are simply misplaced. The hedge fund’s Savvas Savouri argues that rising food demand from a growing global population will trigger a supply response, with technology facilitating it.

So there’s going to be more processed food, not less of it. Read more

Cap and still trade

Some time ago Brussels decided that capping bankers’ bonuses is going to help prevent another financial crisis. A very fashionable move. In fact, the passage of the Basel reforms was contingent on a cap being introduced, so after months of negotiations, a deal was finally stuck this week.

From the FT (our emphasis):

Bankers’ bonuses are to be capped at twice their salary and banks will be subject to a strict transparency regime, under a provisional EU deal that includes minimal concessions to cushion the most severe pay crackdown since the 2008 financial crisis.

 Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

EU secures deal to cap bankers’ bonuses || Iberia charge pushes IAG to €997m loss || RBS seeks more time for branch disposals || Apple shareholders in protest vote on pay || Shell puts Arctic ambitions on ice || JC Penney loses one-third of its sales || Markets: Bulls back in charge Read more

The battle for Bumi flares again [Updated]

We assume that the Bumi survivalists, led by Sir Julian Horn-Smith, never really expected Nat Rothschild to just retire from the scene after suffering defeat in the boardroom power struggle.

And so it has proved. Rothschild is still a subscriber to the Jakata Post and he’s noticed a curious item — the allegedly late disclosure of the sale of a stake in a subsidiary to what is reportedly a Bakrie family entity. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

China to tighten shadow banking rules || US seeks maximum fine in BP spill trial || Osborne weighs impact of banks’ bad loans || US senators press EU on Iran sanctions || Rio Tinto warned of possible rating cut || Scientists claim 72 is the new 30 || Yahoo bans working from home || Markets update: Italian impasse rekindles eurozone jitters Read more

Words of caution for China bulls

Last year’s worries about the Chinese economy suffering a ‘hard landing’ eventually proved to be misplaced. Or should that be, worries that the government wouldn’t be able to engineer a soft landing, proved to be misplaced. Yet, while the economy seems to be on a more stable footing these days, there may be too much optimism that this will continue.

The consensus is for growth of a touch more than 8 per cent this year, roughly in line with what Beijing itself is forecasting. Yet Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen, economists at Nomura, argue this is too bullish, and offer five reasons why they think 7.7 per cent is more realistic, with growth slowing to 7.3 per cent in the second half of 2013. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Brussels turns up pressure over Libor || Relief over HP earnings buys Whitman time || Citi unveils pay plan for executives || Egyptian elections to start in April || ECB unveils €1.1bn profit on crisis bonds || US paints bearish outlook for grain prices || CFTC sues Nymex over information leaks || Markets: Growth-focused products are rallying Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Fed doubtful on open-ended QE3 policy || January public finances in surplus after tax receipts || US moves to fight corporate cybercrime || China and economy to direct Abe US talks || Google to debut Chrome for touchscreens || 800,000 Pentagon staff face unpaid leave || Russia’s missing billions revealed || Markets: Growth-focused asset prices are stumbling on Thursday morning Read more

The dangers of German wage growth

The eurozone’s largest economy has defied the crisis better than most expected, yet it couldn’t maintain growth in the final quarter of last year, shrinking by an estimated 0.6 per cent. That compares to France’s 0.3 per cent and Spain’s 0.7 per cent respective falls. But given that usually Germany is the region’s engine of growth, the key question is how long this weakness might last.

Fortunately it seems that the recovery might be brisk. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Anglo slumps to full-year loss || ECB won’t cut rates to weaken euro, says Weidmann || Broker draws Tullett into Libor scandal || Buffett and Brazil tycoon make Heinz offer || Commerzbank chief to forgo bonus || Cameron blasts retailers over horsemeat || JPMorgan’s Gulati to launch own fund || Meteorite hits central Russia, 400 hurt || Markets: Traders are in cautious mood  Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Obama drive to ‘reignite’ US economy || Neither US party swallows a compromise || G7 fails to defuse currency tensions || Comcast in $16.7bn NBCUniversal buyout || Banks in capital race to top as Sweden’s 12 per cent rule sets pace|| Ailing Peugeot posts record net losses || Australia banks on housebuilding boost || Apple downplays Einhorn suit as ‘sideshow’ || Intel to launch internet-based TV service || Markets: Mixed opening of European trading, but stocks close to multiyear highs Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

North Korea confirms nuclear test || Vice-chair of Fed urges focus on jobs || US Treasury comment triggers fall in yen || Finmeccanica head arrested over bribery allegations || Pay-by-tweet service launched on Twitter || Companies hit by Venezuela move || UK accounting body probes Autonomy || Nasdaq held buyout talks with Carlyle || Markets update: Bulls struggle to inject fresh impetus into the rally Read more

Cyprus doesn’t want a radical rescue, thankyouverymuch

Are you a Russian company with deposits in Cypriot banks?

Do you feel safe?

Do you read newspapers? Read more

Dear Ben, David and Doug, thanks but no thanks. Love, Sareb

When good opportunities are scarce, hedgies will seek them in rather unlikely places.

Take Sareb, the Spanish ‘bad bank’ in the process of raising €250m in new equity for the second round of asset transfers from the country’s beleaguered lenders. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

EU leaders near €960bn budget deal || Apple under pressure on $137bn cash pile || Sony’s sells property rather than TVs || China denies targeting Japanese ship || Dell to repatriate $7bn of overseas cash || China trade growth hints at strong 2013 || Bloomberg’s British empire || Investments pay off for KKR || Markets update: Closing out a fairly volatile week in a more positive mood Read more

Let’s wait for a fall in stocks before declaring a great rotation

With all the excitement about ‘the great rotation’, it often feels that the debate focuses too much on analysing the recent flows, and less about the greed/fear dynamics driving them.

It’s been well documented that bond holders are increasingly frustrated by the miserable yields on offer in the fixed income markets, and are apparently flocking into the ‘cheap’ equity markets. We’ve already voiced our scepticism about the scale of this flocking. Yet what’s potentially also underestimated is the degree of skittishness by bond holders when the stock markets show signs of a wobble. After all, a lot of capital in fixed income got there after investors were burnt in the early 2000s. This loss aversion shouldn’t be underestimated. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Rate-fixing scandal rocks three continents || Monte dei Paschi aided by covert loan || UK December industrial output rose in December || Sony hit by quarterly net loss || Credit Suisse raises cost-cutting targets || Dividend hurdle almost derailed Dell deal || Obama orders release of drone details || Murdoch shrugs off Liberty threat to BSkyB || Markets update: Struggling for momentum Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

- The simplicity of Chinese fraud.

- Are we too scared, or not scared enough?

- The fantasies that make DC insiders feel goodRead more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

US DoJ accuses S&P of $5bn fraud || BlackBerry’s Z10 enjoys strong reception || Google wins landmark Australian legal case || Liberty Global confirms Virgin Media bid || Cable revives RBS privatisation plan || Claims may push BP’s spill bill to $90bn || UK house prices dip on month in January || Abe blasts China over maritime incident || Markets: Stock indices inching back to recent multi-year highs Read more

Dell goes private for $13.65 per share

As was widely expected, the computer maker has struck a deal to go private – for a whopping $24.4bn. The price per share is at the higher end of the $13.50 to $13.75 reported.

The statement from the company is here:

  • Dell stockholders to receive $13.65 per share in cash
  • Transaction valued at approximately $24.4 billion
  • Transaction implies a 37 percent premium over the average closing share price during the previous 90 calendar days ending Jan. 11, 2013

 Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Foxconn plans Chinese union vote || Powerless Super Bowl disrupts advertisers || JAL increases full year forecasts || Argentina proposes new debt swap || Julius Baer boosted by Merrill Lynch || Chinese banks venture into ecommerce || Markets: Global stocks trading at 4½-year highs Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

US banks squeezed as mortgage profits hit || Hagel grilled by angry Republicans || US challenges AB InBev’s Modelo deal || Explosion at Mexico’s Pemex HQ kills 25 || Wasendorf jailed for 50 years for fraud || Markets update: a tentatively positive start to month Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Friday,

- Relax: banks’ risk measurements are rarely off by much more than a factor of ten.

- OCC leadership gets another surprise overhaul.

- Why the markets cannot influence financial institutions. Read more

China’s two paths to urbanisation

China’s growing demographic challenges have been well documented and their economic impact much discussed. So how about urbanisation being touted as the solution?

After all, more people working in cities generally means more productive workers, hard to argue with that. But Beijing’s traditional policy of encouraging urbanisation through greater infrastructure investment is getting ever diminishing returns. If the government really wants more people to move to the cities, argues Wei Yao at Société Générale, it must start treating its new urbanites better. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Costs drag Deutsche Bank to €2.2bn loss || FSA targets banks on interest rate swaps || Chinese hackers target New York Times || US economy slips into reverse || Chinese steel mills face tax pressure || Russia concerned over Israeli air strike || Markets update: a pretty meek finish to a very strong month for stocks Read more

A declining but distorted euro M3

The release of December’s euroland M3 and lending data on Monday got a bit more attention than usual following last week’s larger-than-expected LTRO repayments. Could, we wondered, there be further evidence of the regions financial markets are healing?

The picture was mixed, with a number of likely distortions confusing things, but on the whole it was probably a bit more positive than negative. Read more

The shape of discretionary spending in emerging markets

There may be signs that the wealthiest few zillionaires in emerging markets are outgrowing their love of bling or at least becoming more discerning.

But the fashion houses in Milan and Paris are unlikely to be losing sleep over that. Because for many millions in the EM, success and status remains all too bound up with having Chanel’s double-Cs on their handbag or an Ω on their wrist. Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Apple stock sheds 10% on growth worries || Japan records its largest ever trade deficit || Jaguar profit warning dents Tata Motors || North Korea threatens new nuclear test || Fortescue predicts iron ore price drop || South Korean growth hits three-year low || Google: Feds requesting more user data || Markets: Shares mixed on divergent data Read more

Thanks for all the comments. Interest in food/agriculture has been noted!

Comment on: Mapping future food inflation

@ a-kok, thanks for gastronomic spelling suggestions! The FT uses 'moussaka', like the BBC, so will have to stick to that.

Comment on: Greek government finds it can't have its moussaka and eat it

@carlosalonso and RiskyBoy, thank you, I've fixed the two factual points raised.

@RiskyBoy, v interesting points, thank you. One smart grannie you had!

Comment on: On trying to read the coming Catalan coalition

@ Kris.

Olam is a Singapore-based company, with most operations in Africa and India, run by an Indian. Its links to China are pretty secondary.

Comment on: Muddy Waters' next target: Olam

@ genauer: Thanks, have fixed the typo.

Comment on: Further reading

@ genauer: Here's the list: http://carachancelermerkel.blogspot.pt/p/subscritoresas.html

Comment on: Portugal's growing discontent

It looks like El Mundo is reporting that Mas will call early elections, for 25 Nov or 2 Dec:

http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2012/09/25/barcelona/1348577304.html.

Comment on: Viva España? Spain's other crisis

@ Bazza
The post refers to the movement of labour in the EU, not the currency union, so let's stick to that. It makes a very limited argument, that given all the many other problems, the project has been pretty good at allocating labour at the European level. There is such a thing as the European level, as well as the American level.

I'm not saying this makes the whole project a success by any means. But how would the situation be better if the unemployed or underemployed engineer/academic/whatever in Athens stayed there, doing not a lot, while another country needed their skills? Greece wouldn't be benefiting, neither would the other country and neither would the person themselves.

Comment on: Benefiting from Greece's brain drain

@marquez1234
I take your point. The figures are not overwhelming. But the brain drain is more than just X number of people leaving in year Y to work abroad. It's also how many Greek students go abroad to university and just stay there, rather than returning home as they'd have porbably done before the crisis; and about the (potentially) lower quality of education Greek students will receive, after the best university professors have taken jobs elsewhere. It's also a case of how many skilled foreigners decide not to go work in Greece when before the crisis they might have done etc etc. And all this is impossible to measure. The language barrier, speaking from personal experience and as the above video suggests, is a temporary barrier at best.

Comment on: Benefiting from Greece's brain drain

No discussion of Nazis or Hitler please.

Comment on: Oh, no. Greece mentioned the war...