Evidently it’s time to get very excited about the risks posed by increasing student debt in the US, particularly as rates of delinquency are on the rise. Pretty graphs first, details follow…
Holy household debt, Batman! Student loan balances have surpassed credit card use and are still growing! Read more
Click above to see the survey/competition being run by a German Green party MEP, Sven Giegold. Read more
The 12th National People’s Congress convenes tomorrow in Beijing and, by the time it ends, Xi Jinping will be named head of state and Li Keqiang will be appointed premier.
There’s naturally much speculation around the signals for policy direction that might emerge. Although the events are more akin to formalities than actual decision-making fora, they are being watched closely for clues about the new leadership’s appetite for reforms — which may be revealed through bureaucratic reshuffles, as the FT’s Jamil Anderlini explains. Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
HSBC lifts dividend 50% || Kuroda says ‘will do whatever we can’ at BoJ || Nikkei rises, yen little changed || New Chinese property tightening announced || New Look to open shops in China || Swiss vote for pay curbs || Steinmetz launches $2bn distressed European property fund || New homes bonus ‘a flop’ || No end in sight for Italian gridlock Read more
The question mark in the header is just so as to (reluctantly) give the Bank of England the benefit of the doubt.
Here are the latest stats on the Funding for Lending Scheme, which was supposed to pump £100bn into households and businesses in the UK. Six months in, £13.8bn has been drawn down by British banks, £9.5bn of that coming in the final quarter of 2012. Read more
BoJ governor nominee Haruhiko Kuroda has already been fairly clear that he wants to expand the asset-purchasing programme, and buy longer-term bonds. So how significant are his Draghi-sounding “whatever we can do” comments, really? Read more
Elsewhere on Monday,
- Opaque finance, again, and solutions.
- Afghanistan’s mobile money revolution.
- Will biotechnology provide food security? Read more
Asian shares mostly lower || Kuroda says ‘will do whatever we can’ at BoJ || Nikkei rises, yen little changed || New Chinese property tightening announced || New Look to open shops in China || Swiss vote for pay curbs || Steinmetz launches $2bn distressed European property fund || New homes bonus ‘a flop’ || No end in sight for Italian gridlock Read more
Headline via the Harlan Ellison short story. “Timewise, it was jangle…”
What a week for the pari passu saga, and the fight to show that an order for Argentina to pay holdouts ‘ratably’ alongside its restructured sovereign debt is both over-reaching, and an unfair threat to third-party bondholders and banks.
Yep, FT Alphaville also went along to the oral argument before three judges of the Second Circuit in NML v Argentina on Wednesday, along with about 300 other people. A pretty crazy affair in itself, the hearing has now led to a follow-up order from the court, telling Argentina to give “precise terms” explaining how it would pay holdouts, and how it would obey any decision of the Second Circuit. Read more
Food prices are not a topic we cover often cover, but then a note from Toscafund landed in our inbox arguing that there’s no impending food supply crisis. Indeed, worries about surging inflation are simply misplaced. The hedge fund’s Savvas Savouri argues that rising food demand from a growing global population will trigger a supply response, with technology facilitating it.
So there’s going to be more processed food, not less of it. Read more
We haven’t written up our full take on Wednesday’s (nuts) oral argument in NML v Argentina (sorry), though you should read this, just out from the Second Circuit on Friday…
The court has ordered Argentina to specify “precise terms” of how it would wish to pay holdouts, differently to the current injunction to pay them ‘ratably’ in full: Read more
It’s Friday quiz time! Ready? Here goes:
What do you get?
[Hint: It's America.] Read more
That’s the euro down 0.4 per cent or so against the dollar and crossing the $1.30 mark. Sterling (aka the Great British Krona) is also continuing its torrid start to 2013, losing another 0.9 per cent against the dollar and touching $1.50. Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Shinzo Abe’s phaser || Iksil in headlines that also contain “Lehman” || US braces for spending cuts || Spain’s companies suffer earnings slump || China manufacturing slows || Greece missed revenue targets by large margin || Poland to restart debate to join euro || US regulator to water down SEF rules || Markets update Read more
Frankly we’re bored of this, but:
That question deserves some serious thought, don’t you think? Read more
Gotta love a good contrarian yen call.
As we’ve written multiple times, the yen’s recent fall been based on policy which has yet to appear, namely on expectations of Abenomics. Japanese authorities have done an excellent job of short-term monetary fear-mongering, but as Gavyn Davies put it recently there is a severe risk that the international hedge funds which have been driving the decline in the yen might come to the conclusion that the emperor has no clothes. Read more
Elsewhere on Friday,
- Banker bonus FAQ (for bankers).
- What to do with fat cats? Chuck them in the swimming pool.
- More disclosure, smarter disclosure. Read more
Asian shares fall, Japan rises on easing hopes || Sequestration cuts imminent || Official China PMIs lower || Lib Dems win Eastleigh, Tories come third || Lloyds to announce more PPI provisions || Australian towns win $21m in S&P CPDO case || US student debt delinquencies soaring Read more
The EU’s Council and Parliament agreed on the text for two-pack laws on “enhanced surveillance” of sovereign bailouts on Thursday. It should be on the books soon.
So, if what happened in Greece last year was “exceptional and unique”… Read more
Some time ago Brussels decided that capping bankers’ bonuses is going to help prevent another financial crisis. A very fashionable move. In fact, the passage of the Basel reforms was contingent on a cap being introduced, so after months of negotiations, a deal was finally stuck this week.
From the FT (our emphasis):
Bankers’ bonuses are to be capped at twice their salary and banks will be subject to a strict transparency regime, under a provisional EU deal that includes minimal concessions to cushion the most severe pay crackdown since the 2008 financial crisis.
Courtesy of Goldman Sachs.
Swedish oil company Lundin Petroleum declined to comment on rumours that it has been in talks to sell a significant equity stake to China Petrochemicals Corporation. Read more
All this has happened before and will happen again… at least, so hopes the Japanese government.
Current finance minister Taro Aso has been keen to channel the spirit of his 1930s equivalent Korekiyo Takahashi, whose polices are widely credited with pulling Japan out of the Showa Depression. It’s understandable. Read more
Strong currencies are the bane of every triple-A rated, QE-less economy in currency war-torn 2013, it seems. It’s become an increasingly irksome point in Australia, where the initial exuberance over cheap foreign holidays has been slowly replaced by worries that it’s squeezing the non-mining sectors.
An FOI request by Bloomberg yielded a bunch of documents from the Reserve Bank of Australia about the currency’s overvaluation problem. Specifically, how bad it is and who’s to blame. Well, who among other central banks*, at least. Here’s list of the definitely-implicated: Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
EU secures deal to cap bankers’ bonuses || Iberia charge pushes IAG to €997m loss || RBS seeks more time for branch disposals || Apple shareholders in protest vote on pay || Shell puts Arctic ambitions on ice || JC Penney loses one-third of its sales || Markets: Bulls back in charge Read more
We assume that the Bumi survivalists, led by Sir Julian Horn-Smith, never really expected Nat Rothschild to just retire from the scene after suffering defeat in the boardroom power struggle.
And so it has proved. Rothschild is still a subscriber to the Jakata Post and he’s noticed a curious item — the allegedly late disclosure of the sale of a stake in a subsidiary to what is reportedly a Bakrie family entity. Read more
Older entries
1An FLS fail?
2Mapping future food inflation
3The pollution constraint on China's future growth
4The 6am Cut London
5Further reading
Show more6The (early) Lunch Wrap
7Give us a formula, Argentina
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