Accounting convergence – lost?

Enjoy! Some 148 pages of accounting-for-loan-losses reading:

It’s the IASB’s latest version of its attempt to make banks recognise “lifetime expected” losses on loans or bonds as soon as there are “significant” signs of a credit going bad, instead of waiting until it’s too late and risking a sudden wave of defaults. Read more

A tale of bond investor woe

When James Mac is away, the bloggers will play, but this is a rather serious tale. It relates to the nationalisation of SNS Bank, inclusive of its holding company SNS Reaal.

The above video tells the story of one investor in SNS Bank subordinated bonds. Read more

We seek inflation here, we seek inflation there…

… the Japanese seek inflation everywhere.

All this talk about Japan, JGB bond yields, QE, the yen… and hardly ever does anyone throw up the following chart.

So, without further ado, here is the most important Japanese chart of all courtesy of Capital Economics… the CPI: Read more

Markets Live: Thursday, 7th March, 2013

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Osborne to hand Carney more powers || Google tip-off leads to Microsoft EU penalty || BoJ rejects call for monetary easing || Aviva slashes payout after £3bn loss || Icahn muscles in on Dell deal || KPMG at risk of losing vital HSBC audit || Time Warner to spin off magazines || Equities rally sparks gold funds sell-off || Markets: Markets await central bank decisions Read more

With great power etc

This does smack of desperation, doesn’t it? From the FT on Thursday morning:

Osborne will use his Budget on March 20 to reinforce his message of “fiscal conservatism and monetary activism” by clarifying how the government intends to use monetary policy to get the economy growing again.

 Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Thursday,

- What happens if people live forever?

- Tracy Alloway gets some MS Paint competition. Or maybe not.

- There is no shortage of gold.  Read more

The 6am Cut London

Asian stocks mixed, Nikkei slightly higher || Brussels to climb down on data privacy rules || BoJ holds policy in final Shirakawa meeting || Time Warner to spin off magazines || S&P raises Portugal outlook || Gavyn Davies on financial risk Read more

The Closer

ROUND-UP

FT markets round-up: “Global stocks extended gains as sentiment was boosted by the sight of record levels for Wall Street blue-chips, following optimism over the US economy and expectations of continued stimuli from central banks. Away from equities growth-focused assets were less upbeat, however. Copper fell 0.7 per cent at $3.48 a pound and Brent crude traded below $111 a barrel for most of the session. This left so-called commodity currencies muddled relative to the greenback, the Australian dollar rose up 0.1 per cent but its Canadian namesake is off 0.4 per cent, the latter also impacted by a weak Ivey purchasing managers’ survey and after the country’s central bank held interest rates at 1 per cent. Yet, perceived fixed income havens generally struggled as they lost favour to stocks. Prices for Treasuries and Bunds eased back, forcing yields up 4 basis points to 1.93 per cent and 1bp to 1.46 per cent, respectively. The FTSE All-World equity index rose 0.2 per cent to 235.8 as it gained support from mildly firm performances in Europe and the US.” (Financial TimesRead more

The age of infinite equity?

Financial pundits, academics, fund managers and analysts all have an amazing tendency to over-complicate matters.

Sometimes, however, it takes just one person spelling out the obvious to really get to the root of the problem. Read more

February the strongest month ever for US buybacks

That’s according to a note this morning by Birinyi Associates, which adds: Read more

Pari passu, the cross-sovereign contamination

Some excerpts from a lawsuit filed by the Export-Import Bank of China (Taipei) against Grenada in a United States district court on March 4, 2013…

If you have been following the pari passu saga on ratable payment of sovereign debt — they tell their own story. (Click to enlarge all images.) Read more

Raising the RUFO in Argentine bonds

In case you didn’t fancy ploughing through our 3,000+ words on NML v Argentina last week at the Second Circuit…

Barclays’ analysts have boiled down the next turning point in the pari passu saga into two paragraphs, in their March 5 note (irresistibly titled ‘Cram-down or sanctity of contract? Is there a way out?’): Read more

Markets Live: Wednesday, 6th March, 2013

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

The (early) Lunch Wrap

Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez dies || Samsung buys stake in Sharp || FBI joins SEC in computer trading probe || Legal and General dividend rise allays investor gloom || Microsoft faces EU fine for breaking pact || North Korea mixes Dennis with menace || Bolshoi star confesses to acid attack || Markets update: Global stocks are on course for a fresh four-year high Read more

Don’t kill the old, pander to them

“Whatever we can”, you say? Encouraging words from BoJ governor nominee Kuroda over the weekend (even if comparisons with Mr Draghi are overblown). If Cullen Roche is correct, what happens in Japan over the next year or many could change the future of economic policy. So it’s worth spending a bit more time on what Kuroda’s “can” might actually be.

We’ve argued already that much of the low-hanging fruit of expectations and verbal intervention has already been plucked. Read more

HFT woes Down Under

Australian authorities have been considering how to deal with algorithmic and high-speed trading since 2010. Long story short; the local Australian Financial Review says that the federal Treasury has decided that fees on high frequency trades orders are the way to go.

This prompted protests from the chief of Chi-X Australia, Peter Fowler, that market makers should be treated differently: Read more

Further reading

Elsewhere on Wednesday,

- Funding-for-Lending’s fatal flaws.

- There is no magic investing policy.

- Chavez unfondly remembered in two charts. Read more

The 6am Cut

Asian stocks climb || Chavez dies || Osborne anti-bonus cap bid fails || Samsung to take stake in Sharp || Permira cuts fund-raising target || Martin Wolf on the BoJ’s challenges || ECB likely to hold yet again Read more

The Closer

Dow 14253.77, it’s a record. The DJIA closed up 0.9 per cent, beating its previous all-time high in October 2007 of 14,164.53. The price-weighted index had risen as much as 1.1 per cent to 14,286.37 intraday (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters).

A retail investor milestone? With its new high, the Dow is now trading at 12.7 times earnings, below 17.1 times in 2007. While few funds directly track the Dow’s performance – $27.5bn compared to the $1.3tn tracing the S&P 500 – the index retains symbolic power for retail investors (Financial Times, Reuters). Record highs for the Dow have led to jumps in stock mutual fund investments in all but one of the last six bull markets – though record highs also usually portended that bull markets were about to finish. The rally’s foundation on easy policy by the Federal Reserve will test that truism (Wall Street Journal). Read more

The wealth (declining?) effect

How much do we care about the Dow’s crossing into record territory?

Enough to mention it in this post, but not so much that we’re going to strain our brain for anything original rather than just reproducing this par from last year, when the Dow crossed 13,000 (but which applies just as well today): Read more

Buybacks, M&A, and de-equitisation

The chart above from Credit Suisse Trading Strategy (pdf) shows the dollar value of quarterly net share changes in the S&P 500 index.

In simpler terms, this is a measure of corporate net buying, which is roughly: Read more

A wholly unregulated Libor, FSA edition

Yes yes, the FSA had trouble passing the Wall Street Journal around the office in mid-2008.

 Read more

More on the spot and forward price commodity disconnect

An excellent observation from John Kemp over at Reuters on Tuesday regarding the spot/forward disconnect we’ve been talking about:

The increasingly close linkage between hedge funds and spot prices since 2010 has also coincided with a sharp reduction in the correlation between front-month and far-forward prices. Correlation between spot month and forward prices, generally above 90 percent until 2010, is now often less than 50 percent (Charts 5-6). Read more

The Prince and the Paper

It’s the end of an affair. From the FT:

Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the Saudi investor whose interests range from the Hotel George V in Paris to a stake in Twitter, announced on Monday that he had “severed ties” with the Forbes billionaires list, accusing it of a “flawed” valuation method that displayed a bias against middle eastern investors.

Now we know why. Kudos to Forbes for a riveting write-up of Prince Alwaleed’s dealings with the magazine, including its attempts to figure out how Kingdom Holdings (the prince’s publicly-traded investment vehicle) contributes to the wealth of the Arab world’s richest man.

Some extracts… Read more

Fantasy central banking

Like Top Trumps, just not as much fun…

 Read more

Markets Live: Tuesday, 5th March, 2013

Live markets commentary from FT.com 

Record highs and commodity writedowns

On the day the Dow is expected to open at a record high, the hottest M&A story of the year — Glencore and Xstrata — brings us the following.

First the collective news (via the FT): Read more

The (early) Lunch Wrap

China is retaining its GDP growth target of 7.5 per cent for 2013 || The Pari Passu Saga continues || Yellen on asset purchases || Talk of a bubble in student loans || The FSA cracks down on payment for access to chief executives || London banks consider suing EU over bonus caps || Heinz chief could be entitled to $56m deal || Profits fall at Glencore and Xstrata || Chavez’s breathing problems worsen || Swiss bank Wegelin to pay US $74m over tax violation || StanChart expected to report record earnings || Anadarko and Videocon eye $4.5bn sale || Alwaleed challenges Forbes over billions || China said to back new sanctions against North Korea || Gas resumes flowing from ENI’s Libya plant || Cyprus has agreed to submit to review || Apple’s market cap fell below $400bn || SEC allowed to pursue Deloitte China subpoena || France eyes tougher merger rules || Australian rates on hold || Semark in line to run UBS dark pool Read more

A triple-dip avoided?

In the UK, that is. Perhaps. Just.

The Markit UK services PMI is out and the headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity index posted 51.8 in February, slightly above January’s 51.5. Read more