The season of big round numbers--as in, 16,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average,1,800 on the S&P 500, 4,000 on the NASDAQ--is upon us.
The five-week period after Thanksgiving is traditionally one of the strongest times of the year. Then again, these "seasonal" indicators haven't worked as well in the last few years...remember "sell in May and go away" until November? During that time, S&P 500 went from 1,597 to 1,756...a 10 percent gain!
New highs for the S&P 500: So what's next? The index is now up 6 weeks in a row, and is threatening the recent record of seven consecutive winning weeks since hitting its 2009 low. We have had below-normal volume all week, and the December 2012 taper trades have come off. We are back to high-beta names, with old tech (Cisco) out and Internet and tech (Yahoo, Zillow, Yelp, Groupon, Priceline, Amazon, Facebook, Linkedin all up 3 to 7 percent this week) back in.
Is there a big reason to sell? Not right now. Everyone has gone back to being more scared of missing the upside than getting killed on the downside.
What about earnings for next year? It's too early to argue about that, but right now, the market is trading at 15 times earnings, with expectations of earnings growth of roughly 10 percent next year. That is not overpriced.
New Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen got exactly what she wanted: a quiet, non-controversial hearing. Stocks rose modestly, interest rates were flat to down.
It wasn't that the questioning was irrelevant. All the right issues were addressed: asset bubbles, when tapering might begin ("this program cannot continue forever"), Dodd-Frank and bank regulation (it will make a "very meaningful difference"), and the Fed's communication outreach program ("we certainly want to diminish volatility").
It was just so...tame. No one raised their voice, no one tried to lead Yellen into some dark alleyway where she would have to admit that yes, Senator, you sure are right: our policies really did benefit the rich, and we haven't helped anybody else.
There was a brief moment of tension when Senator Corker tried to get her to admit that the Fed was in danger of becoming a prisoner of the market. But she parried with a bland response...we can't be prisoners of the market, we have to take into account market reactions...and instead of parrying back Senator Corker wound up his questioning by thanking her effusively:
For once, the rumors were right.
Around lunchtime Tuesday, stocks began to slowly lift out of negative territory. This was right after Europe closed, and often when there is selling pressure in Europe (as there was at the time), our markets are weak. So no one paid too much attention to the fact that we started lifting right after Europe closed.
But by about 1 PM ET, as the market continued to lift, traders began discussing the idea that Janet Yellen's testimony might be much more dovish than was expected. The mainstream opinion was that she would placate Republicans and not go out of her way to emphasize that she would keep the bond program in place for as long as it took to convince her the economy was turning around.
The new boss of the NYSE speaks out on the floor and what's wrong with trading.
This morning on our air, I spoke with the new boss of the NYSE, Intercontinental (ICE) CEO Jeff Sprecher, who completed his acquisition of NYSE Euronext last night.
Sprecher made it clear that—while he did not make any long-term commitments to keep the NYSE floor—the Twitter IPO and the extensive coverage CNBC provided around how the IPO was priced has left him with a renewed appreciation for the value of human participation in the markets.
"I ended up pushing back a meeting I was scheduled to go to because I wanted to watch the open, see the price, watch the founder, the management team," he told me.
"Did it restore or increase your faith in the value of floor-based trading?" I asked.
Macy's was the first big retailer to report (most have an August-October quarter), and its results this morning were certainly encouraging. Both earnings and revenues were above expectations, while comparable store sales were up 3.5 percent.
That was quite a bit above expectations. Earnings were up 30 percent year over year--a contrast from the average retailer, which is expected to increase earnings by only four percent in this quarter, according to RetailMetrics.
My reaction is: Huh? Back to school was not great, there were lots of promotions, and everyone believed the shutdown must have had some negative impact. So what gives?
The U.S. electrical grid system is about to come under a simulated attack. According to SmartGridNews, the North American Electrical Reliability Council (NERC) will launch a simulated attack on the U.S. power grid, beginning tomorrow. The attack will last 36 hours. Participants will include 65 utilities and eight transmission organizations.
This sounds very much like "Quantum Dawn 2", the simulated cyber attack on U.S. banks and stock exchanges that was staged in July this year under the auspices of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).
The idea is to simulate what would happen if someone hacked into the national power grid, and were able to shut down all or part of the nation's power supply.
How prepared is the U.S. electric grid for a cyber attack? According to the website, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has broad authority to protect against cyber attacks, but lacks specific legal authority to enforce regulations, a critical oversight that needs to be fixed.
As with stock exchanges, there are attempts to mandate standards for protecting the grid that have only been partially successful. For example, the website notes that standards promulgated by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) are voluntary when they should be mandatory.
Here is the story: http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Technologies_Security/Why-NERC-will-attack-the-grid-November-13-and-what-it-could-mean-for-utilities-6152.html/#.UoJJ-iezkfV
Ten-year Treasury yields are moving toward 2.8 percent this morning, pressuring stocks. Dallas Federal Reserve president Richard Fisher, speaking on our air in Asia, said the Fed's balance sheet had become "bloated" and that bond buying "cannot go on forever."
He was clear, however, that slowing bond purchases down "doesn't mean we'll stop. We'll have less accommodation."
Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota wil speak at 1 PM ET; Ataltnat Fed President Dennis Lockhart will also speak at that time.
Is the retail investor really back? The Wall Street Journal ran a front-page story this morning noting that the retail investor has returned to stocks.
While much of the story was based on anecdotal observations, there is certainly more money going into stock mutual funds this year. I'm just not sure it is the tidal wave everyone has been waiting for.
October non-farm payrolls soared by 204,000, well above estimates of 120,000, with upward revisions in September (to 163,000 from 148,000), and August revised upward as well. Private payroll growth was 212,000, the strongest since February.
S&P futures dropped 10 points, the 10-year Treasury yield went from 2.6% to 2.7%, the dollar index rallied to a near two-month high, and gold dropped from $1,307 to $1,292.
Huh? Wasn't the government shutdown was supposed to turn this into an irrelevant, disposable number?
CNBC's Bob Pisani and Art Cashin, of UBS, discuss the FOMC minutes and says the market reaction was fairly muted even though it was disappointed in what it heard today.
Wednesday, 20 Nov 2013 | 2:24 PM ETCNBC's Diana Olick reports on the worse than expected home sales numbers and how the low rate of first time buyers is hurting the market.
Wednesday, 20 Nov 2013 | 2:00 PM ETCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the discussions centering on the Fed minutes, including a reduction in Treasurys, and lowering the unemployment threshold and reducing the IOER.