Jim Power: As the Irish economy reopens, people will seek to rebuild their lives as quickly as possible
The migration to online means that many consumers might just not bother returning to the bricks and mortar stores. This is a significant concern for the integrity of our village, town and cities. Picture: Eddie O'Hare
At many different levels, life in Ireland has been pretty downbeat since the beginning of the year. The Government has forced us to live with severe restrictions and this has had a very significant impact on the social and economic fabric of the country.
Many will argue that Government had no choice in the face of the pandemic, while many others disagree, and argue a more nuanced and risk-assessed approach should have been adopted.
This is a debate for another day, but one should have no illusions about the fact that the costs of the very stringent restrictions, and the nuance-lacking approach of the Irish Government, particularly in 2021, will leave a very significant legacy for Irish society and the economy for some time to come.
However, as we move into May, there are grounds for optimism. The Government has announced another roadmap for the gradual re-opening of the economy.
In reality, the Government had no choice.
There are still, of course, enormous uncertainties about what the coming months might have in store. The re-opening path over the next two or three months is heavily predicated on the virus remaining under control.
This is the subtle warning from Government that we had all better behave ourselves over the coming weeks, but I somehow doubt this warning will resonate with too many people.
Having been kept in captivity for so long, the strong urge for many is to get out there and start living again.
Hopefully, the vaccine rollout will continue to significantly reduce illness for older and more vulnerable people and that hospitalisation rates will remain low. This seems to be the experience in those countries who have been more successful in delivering the vaccine rollout than Ireland.
There are many statistics demonstrating the impact of the level 5 restrictions. The so-called non-essential retail sector is one of those sectors that has felt deeply aggrieved in recent months, but it is far from being alone.
The reopening of non-essential retail later in May might just unleash a massive catch-up in behaviour, but the migration to online means that many consumers might just not bother returning to the bricks and mortar stores. This is a significant concern for the integrity of our village, town and cities.
Nonetheless, there is massive pent-up demand in the Irish economy at the moment, with record levels of household savings. A lot of this money will find its way back into the economy without too much provocation.
A look elsewhere gives a clear idea of what is possible: in April, EU consumer sentiment jumped by the largest monthly rate since the series commenced in 1985, showing how eagerly vaccinated people are longing for a return to life as they knew it.
In the US, where the vaccine programme is much more advanced than in the EU, the economy expanded very strongly, showing the extent of the pent-up demand that exists in the economy there.
The moral of the story is that as the Irish economy re-opens people will seek to recreate life as they previously knew it as quickly as possible.
Bring it on.
