No sooner had Italian stocks soared and bonds tightened (sic) on early exit polls suggesting Pier Luigi Bersani’s centre-left Democratic party might have secured victory in both the lower and upper houses of the Parlamento Italiano, than…
So Nassim Taleb had a go at TED the other week. Over “skin in the game”.
(There’s also a paper. On skin in the game. Not on TED.) Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
New president elected in Cyprus, now onto the bank bailout || New BoJ governor || China flash PMI || To the polls in Italy, with a low turnout || The UK’s downgrade hits pound || RBS to float Citizens || Revisiting the budget sequester || Markets update Read more
That’s the considered opinion of Julian D. A. Wiseman (most recently head of UK rates strategy at Société Générale but writing on his personal blog here) on the Monday after Moody’s cut its credit rating for the UK from Aaa to Aa1, taking the Bank of England down with it. For those keeping count, that makes it a downgrade that was neither surprising, nor informative nor, in itself, damaging (as Martin Wolf put it)… but more to the point it was just plain silly. Read more
The flash HSBC/Markit China PMI number for February: 50.4. That’s a four-month low and quite a drop from 52.3 of January. Yet, as HSBC’s Hongbin Qu reminds us, it’s also the fourth consecutive month of expansion above 50 — the level which demarcates between above-trend and sub-trend growth.
So, what to make of it? Well firstly, Chinese New Year happened in February and, yes, you probably need to treat January and February data with caution because this holiday a) can fall in either month, and b) is huge. Read more
This Monday edition of rising Japanese equities/weak yen is brought to you by Haruhiko Kuroda, president of the Asian Development Bank and according to various media reports, the likely nominee for Bank of Japan governor.
Kuroda reportedly said early this month he was quite happy at the ADB and had nearly four years to serve of his third term. But to that we say: Mark Carney! Read more
Now that Cypriots have elected the guy who’ll have to negotiate how to pay for the costliest bank bailout in history (relative to the size of the economy on the world’s 81st-biggest island)…
He (and they) could do worse than look at these charts, courtesy of Gabriel Sterne at Exotix: Read more
Elsewhere on Monday,
- Payments, finance and a proto-shadow banking system in Ancient Rome.
- The arrival of Japan’s sunset.
- THAT question revisited. Read more
Asian markets rise, yen weakens || Kuroda tipped for BoJ governor || China flash PMIs surprisingly weak || Italians go to polls || Osborne in difficult position after downgrade || Scottish currency battle looms || RBS may sell part of Citizen || RBS to pay Direct Line advisers more || BP in holding pattern Read more
Last year’s worries about the Chinese economy suffering a ‘hard landing’ eventually proved to be misplaced. Or should that be, worries that the government wouldn’t be able to engineer a soft landing, proved to be misplaced. Yet, while the economy seems to be on a more stable footing these days, there may be too much optimism that this will continue.
The consensus is for growth of a touch more than 8 per cent this year, roughly in line with what Beijing itself is forecasting. Yet Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen, economists at Nomura, argue this is too bullish, and offer five reasons why they think 7.7 per cent is more realistic, with growth slowing to 7.3 per cent in the second half of 2013. Read more
Let’s take a moment for a high level overview of public debt-to-GDP ratios in the eurozone. If that’s not your idea of fun, well, you probably wouldn’t be reading FT Alphaville.
Courtesy of a note by Lasse Holboell W. Nielsen of the Economics Research team at Goldman Sachs (we may have added some kittens)… Read more
The disconnect we’ve noticed between commodity fundamentals and forward rates appears to be popping up in other asset classes as well.
Priya Misra, rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, makes a very interesting point on Friday about what she sees in her sector. Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Brussels turns up pressure over Libor || Relief over HP earnings buys Whitman time || Citi unveils pay plan for executives || Egyptian elections to start in April || ECB unveils €1.1bn profit on crisis bonds || US paints bearish outlook for grain prices || CFTC sues Nymex over information leaks || Markets: Growth-focused products are rallying Read more
Elsewhere on Friday,
- How the eurozone crisis was about a buyer’s strike.
- Perhaps the singularity isn’t going to happen?
- European banks would be less scary if they were in the US. Read more
Asian stocks edge up || European Commission looms over Libor banks || Shareholder rebuff to Rothschild paves way for Bumi split || HP earnings buy time for turnaround || Bankia’s epic loss Read more
Good news for Sir Richard Gozney (KCMG, CVO, KStJ), who will be joining the board of Bumi after Thursday’s shareholder vote.
Not so good news for Nat Rothschild. Read more
That’s Citi’s risk-warning signals beginning to spike over the past couple of weeks and especially over the last day or two. From Citi’s Steven Englander: Read more
Click to enlarge — details (finally) of the sovereign bonds held by the European Central Bank’s inactive Securities Markets Programme, released on Thursday: Read more
We tried to explain the QE surplus ‘raid’ before but never approached the crystal clear clarity of Thursday’s ONS release on the treatment of cash transfers from the BoE to the Treasury (the release of which accompanies the news that public finances improved in January although they were flattered by such transfers): Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Fed doubtful on open-ended QE3 policy || January public finances in surplus after tax receipts || US moves to fight corporate cybercrime || China and economy to direct Abe US talks || Google to debut Chrome for touchscreens || 800,000 Pentagon staff face unpaid leave || Russia’s missing billions revealed || Markets: Growth-focused asset prices are stumbling on Thursday morning Read more
Western markets were all a-jitter on Thursday. Obviously we can blame the Fed. Bickering between central bankers just doesn’t look good, whether they are American, British or continental Europeans.
An immediate question is raised: are we witnessing the end of ‘fast and loose’ policy? The quick answer is probably ‘not yet,’ although yes, it will end, and maybe sooner than some had come to assume. This presents a fresh challenge for policy markets, as noted by Lloyds’ Charles Diebel: Read more
Nymex WTI futures trade experienced somewhat of a wobble on Wednesday.
As Stephen Schork highlights in his chart of the day: Read more
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- A gift of the gab?
- Banks on borrowed money.
- Russia’s “well organised” capital flight. Read more
Asian markets fall after FOMC minutes || China talks of more property curbs || US Congress to target Target2 Iran-linked transfers || RSA investors unhappy at dividend cut || FSA’s Libor report coming soonish || Foxconn hiring freeze hurts Apple shares || Questions after Sony PS4 announcement || Fed wants to expand beyond primary dealers Read more
Older entries
1What took you so long, Moody's?
2'This downgrade is nonsense!'
3The Chinese PMI circus [Updated]
4Kuroda! The BoJ's goldilocks